Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Can Bama get back on track in Lubbock?

road trip may be just the medicine for struggling tide...

        Usually a team on a three game skid would love to play its next game at home. That's the prevailing wisdom. I have a different veiwpoint - win a road game to stop the bleeding and kill two birds with one stone. Alabama has that chance on Wednesday night in Lubbock, Texas when they take on a tradition rich Texas Tech program. The game will be televised on ESPN 3. Tip off in Lubbock is 7:00 CST. A sell out crowd of 15,000 is expected. The Red Raiders are 5-2 for the season. Alabama is 6-3 but has lost the last 3. Texas Tech is a member of the Big 12 and are coached by first year Coach Chris Walker. Alabama is 5-1 overall agaist Tech with the last game being played in Osaka, Japan in 1983. That trip brings back a lot of good memories and a lot of culture shock. Lubbock isn't at the end of the world but you have to exit there on your trip. I am very interested in this game primarily to see whether Grant has found anything to help our inside game. Translated: has he kick Gueye and Jacob's rear ends enough get their attention.  If Grant could get 15 minutes of productive play from each it will make a major difference in the season. Just get a few points, snare a few rebounds, and play some defense. Let the other team know that we do a have a big man you can't just ignore. On offense we'd look to Jacobs. On defense it is probably Gueye.


pollard steps up against vcu
        Lost in the A-Bomb blast that hit the Tide in Richmond was the good play of Devonta Pollard. The freshman had 13 points and 8 rebounds against VCU. He also got physical inside when he was getting shoved around. He got moved, but he didn't get intimidated. If we could get 13 points and 8 boards a game for Pollard what a difference that would make. Pollard had a few put backs, a short jumper, and was very active underneath. He also elevated. This kid can jump into the rafters. Break out games come in all shades and colors. The numbers were not overwhelming but compared to the carnage that was Alabama he held his own plus some. A Pollard who can be productive will make the Tide a much better team. I see a possibility of posting him high to allow his mid range game to be utilized. You know what that does to defenders around him.
 
     Tech will have a big home court advantage. Their have been a lot of upsets on their home floor. The Red Raiders have had big time coaches and a lot of good players. The real drawback for Tech is the lack of a recruiting base. Despite this, the University has a proud basketball tradition. One unique aspect of the Tech team is that their best player doesn't start. Jaye Crockett, ( 6-7 205 lb. Junior) is widely acclaimed to be the best 6th man in college basketball, at least by Red Raider fans. He is averaging 15.6 ppg and almost 9 boards. Crockett is tough, agile, and relentless. I watched him on television earlier in the year and he is ball player. I know that Pollard is the only player we have on the floor who is quick enough to keep him sight. Honestly, I see know none one our team to match up with Crockett. Jacobs and Gueye can help out against him inside. He is a load. But Gueye will have his hands full with Dejan Kravic, who is 6-11 and 240 lbs. His numbers are not impressive (11.3 ppg and 6 rpg)  but his presence cannot be ignored. He is one of two power forwards who play on the inside for the Red Raiders. Alabama cannot allow him to own the lane. The Kravich-Gueye match up will be one to watch closely. Texas Tech needs Kravich to be a big part of their offense. Of course, Gueye is just a passing thought in Bama's sluggish offense. 

defense, defense, and defense

   The Tide defense has played well so far. They didn't play bad against VCU. When the game got out of hand and the players tired the Rams shot and made a lot of threes. One good thing in my mind was the interior defense played very well in Richmond. It will take a similar effort against Texas Tech. A lot of that good defense came from the guards, who despite the offense woes, didn't allow a lot of easy entry passes. VCU created a few lanes for easy baskets, but all in all the defense was pretty solid. Part of the defensive effort in the Tech game is going to come on our offensive end of the floor. The Tide needs to let the Red Raiders know they can get to the basket down the paint. One thing the Tide must do is make some threes. We are shooting 37% for the season. That isn't great but it is 10% better than last year. Actually, the Tide is shooting threes above the NCAA average but they need to put that percentage because of poor inside scoring.

the guards and a prediction
         Tech plays three guards just like  need to be a lot better. Josh Gray, 6-1 is the main scoring threat. He is right at 12 per game. He is a true freshman with quick hands. He averages 3 steals per game. That is a great number for a guard, and it puts him in the top 10 of NCAA steals. He is a good dribble drive guard. I'd look for Releford to draw the assignment with help from Obahason of the bench.Gray is dishing out 3 assists per game. Trency Jackson is the shooting guard, although all three Tech guards play a lot of point because of the offensive set. Jackson is hitting almost 9 per game. The final part of the starting trio is 6-4 Jr. is Jamal Williams. He is a good shooter, but doesn't take a lot of shots. He is more the defensive go to guy on the Red Raider team. Levi Randolph will likely match up with him because of size, and the fact that Williams likes to post low at times due to his size. Two Big 12 assistants told me that he causes some match up problems due to his size.  I think Randolph can handle him.

You know I think  this is a game the Crimson Tide can win. Whether they will or not is a different question. As always we are at a disadvantage inside. I think we have more talent than Texas Tech. If Pollard plays well, if the guards shoot well, and if we can get anything inside we win. And of course we can't turn the ball over 25 times.

Keys to winning for Bama:
  • Hold turnovers down to no more that 12
  • 40% outside shooting
  • Pollard needs to step up
  • Big men must produce something
  • Defense must continue to play with intensity.
  • Make 80% of free throws

I'll take Bama by a paper thin 59-57 margin.


     




















 

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