'BAMA AN NCAA FIELD TEAM?

JURY STILL OUT IN MY OPINION

Just to be in the hunt is remarkable

  

Edwards rips one

   I'd like to start this blog off by saying I love Alabama basketball. There may be a lot of you that love the Tide as much as me, but none enjoys it more. In my basketball life, I have watched over 1200 Alabama games. My father and I personally viewed the longest shot in college basketball history and witnessed the Johnny Dee and the Rocket Eight play some of the best basketball ever played at the University. From that point on most of you have at least some knowledge of who was our coach and how they played. I've seen the great, the good, the mediocre, and the horrible. I'm not sure how many surviving fans can say that. I hope a lot of us are still around. This hoopla over the Tide's chance to play in the NCAA is a grain of sand on the beach.  That's not to say it isn't fun, and I'm hopeful, of course. 

     One thing I've learned over that period there is never "the most important game" the Tide has played. Every era has their most important games. This year is no different. Different players, a fiery new coach, and the yearning by fans for a new start fuel expectations. It shouldn't be any other way. If you love the Tide, you want them to win. We transfer football like greatness in our desires. That is fundamentally unfair to our basketball team. I think with my background it is fair to say it will be wonderful to make the NCAA or the NIT. That would be using the crimson colored vision approach. I'm not sure the Tide is NCAA Calibre, at least not yet. Another three or four game winning streak might change my might. We all want our beloved Crimson Tide to make the field, but all this talk about next four out, last four in, and what our current seed might be mean absolutely nothing until we play our last game in the SEC Tournament. The talk might be fun and sell newspapers, or cause us to click on a helpful site. That's all it means. 

    Alabama didn't look like an NCAA team against Mississippi State or Kentucky. We looked only marginally better against Auburn. We aren't hitting on all eight cylinders so to speak. If we play the as poorly in our last  games,  we can be beaten by both Arkansas and Georgia. We can say a few good things about a very game Auburn team, and of course, the obligatory we came back to beat theTigers.  But to have to come from behind to win that game was disturbing to me. Something is wrong. Can Johnson fix it?

    I hope that  two huge slam dunks in prime time will lead to a coming out party of Michael Kessens? Obasahan found himself trapped in defensive gimmicks set to keep him out of the paint. The best player we have figured out a way to lead his team to victory by a monumental last six minutes. If he isn't named First Team All-SEC, there is no justice. Don't look for justice. Look for favoritism as usual. Arthur Edwards returned from the living dead as well. Riley Norris's hand injury is affecting his game. Without Norris, the Tide is not going to make the NCAA.  Coleman is showing some life. Don'ta Hall played his top game of his best year, as Jimmie Taylor watched from the bench.

     Good teams make their free throws. The reason we didn't beat Auburn by 15 or more was the second worst free throw shooting I've ever seen. Luckily, Auburn was even worse from the line. That allowed us to win. NCAA teams don't last long with those type performances. Tide fans, like most fans, tend to overlook unsettling things about their teams. If the Tide can get back to their fine play before the two losses, we will make the NCAA. If we lose another regular season game, we will drop like a hot rock.

     Almost the experts have us somewhere in the field right now. That is merely a snapshot in time. The real photo will take place on Selection Sunday. Will we make it.?I honestly don't know. Place the emphasis on the honestly, please.

AUBURN COMES TO TOWN TODAY - LET'S WELCOME THEM TO TOWN IN THE TYPICAL BAMA TRADITION

   

  If Alabama wants to be a part of the NCAA Tournament, it starts tomorrow with Auburn. Saturday is going to be a great game with two teams that are fairly even in talent in my opinion. Tyler Harris is due to return to the starting lineup for AU, and he's a nice solid player. He was kept out due to concussion protocols. His insertion into a game gives the Tigers a seven-man rotation. It's been quite a few games since that happens. T.J. Dunnins has been back in the lineup since injuring a knee earlier in the season. Bowers seems to have some big games when playing Alabama. Talk on the AU campus is that the Tigers are going to sweep the Tide for the first time since Noah was eligible. 

     In reality, this is not a game about the Auburn Tigers. It is a game about Alabama and whether they can start a new winning streak. The Tide was thumped by Kentucky and played their worst game since Xavier. Alabama's NCAA chances are getting dim. If the Tide as any chance they have to win their last three games, and I feel the need to get one or two more in the SEC Tournament. No one can honestly say what it will take to get into the Field. There are far too many games on the bubble, and who knows what those teams are going to do.

     Alabama must regain their confidence, which appeared to disappear in the Kentucky game. It also seemed that everyone but Retin Obasohan went brain dead. Auburn is a spirited and highly competitive bunch. They beat a more talented Georgia team in Auburn earlier in the week. The bottom line here is what I said about State. We have to ready. Alabama is an 11 point favorite. This Alabama has knocked to the canvass. Now we will find out if they can get back up. They did earlier in the season. They've lost only two games which we should have won. Those games were Auburn away and State at home. My source who was once on the Selection Committee, tells me that at minimum Bama needs to win its last three games. One is a road game in Georgia. Our RPI is not going to rise much due to the low RPI of our opponents.  When I asked if he thought the Tide need to win a game or two in the SC. "He said every team would like to do that. The wild card is upsets in postseason league Tournaments and what bubble teams play well going down the stretch." He went on to say that the Tide is  "really" on the bubble. Look for other bubble teams which lose while you win is the key. Perhaps the best post I've seen is by BAMA16, who gives us an excellent breakdown of what's what in Bubbleville. Kudos to him or her for their hard work.
Here's today's menu for success:

1. Bama must shut better. Both teams shoot around 42%. We need to be the team who does better.
2. Up the ante on defense. Auburn finally have 7 go to players in their rotation, but a lot of those players have played a lot of minutes.
3. Will anyone help Retin? I'm talking about Hale, Edwards, or Riley. Someone care to chips in?
4. Hope that Jimmie Taylor stays out of foul trouble, and he keeps Bowers in check.
5. I'm almost afraid to mention making free throws.
6. Let's hope the refs give us our fair share of home cooking.
7. Fan support must be proud, loud, and never let up. Visit the Cameron Crazies for further instructions. I'm talking about non-students. Remember we are the sixth man.

Tide by 5 or more as the tractor takes a hit today.

TIDE FACES A SUDDENLY HOT AU TEAM THIS WEEKEND...



      his may sound a little over the top. Based upon Alabama's last two games, all of a sudden AU is an important basketball game. It's not just because they are the barn. Alabama needs to get back in gear, and a home game against your in-state arch-rival may be just the ticket. Alabama needs to regroup and start shooting the ball. What Kentucky did to the Tide isn't relevant to this weekend's game. Kentucky's talent was so much better than Alabama's it isn't even close. The talent levels will be much closer this weekend. 
   
Retin was best guard on floor at Kentucky

          After watching the game, I think Retin Obasohan would be the only Bama player that could make the UK first eight players. This Saturday, Retin Obasohan, will once again be called on to carry the Tide to a win. At the start of the season, I speculated that Retin was going to make an All-SEC team, and he is underrated by the media 'experts'. Perhaps the word ignored would be a more accurate description of what the whiz kids thought of Retin.

       In my opinion, he is the best guard in the SEC and has every right to be named SEC Player of the Year. For that to happen his teammates, need to cut out the sloppy play and help him a little. They need to help him more than a little. I applaud Johnson for allowing him to rest in the last few minutes of the Kentucky game. Ask John Calipari, who the big dog was on Tuesday night. Calipari took some extra time to tell the senior what a great game he had just played. 

What to do this weekend?

     Let's set the table for the weekend. What's needed?

1. Arthur Edwards needs to return to his earlier form.

2. Riley Norris must have some sets run for him to shoot.

3. In fact, the entire team needs to shoot the ball more.

4. Just play defense in the manner the Tide has done most of the season.

5. I'd take Michael Kessens into the back of the locker room and give him the message - play harder, play meaner, or sit on the bench a be a cheerleader. His lack of aggressive play is hurting the Tide. His weak ball handling has been going on long enough. He needs to show us more than a glimpse here and there. It's time to like a junk yard dog and not a lost puppy.

6. Same for Taylor. Be a man under the boards. Let me clarify. I think his shot blocking is super. He needs to pull down a lot more rebounds. In fairness to Taylor, those high screens take him away from the basket on the offensive end. But on the defensive end, he needs to kill the 'Eye of the Tiger'' this weekend. 

Pearl is a good coach like him or not?

     I know we like to call Bruce Pearl "the sweat hog" as a joke. He is one helluva coach and don't ever confuse his persona with his ability. This man has proven he can coach at every coaching stop he makes. You may not like him, but don't ever underestimate him. AU's win over Georgia on Tuesday night was a great victory for his program. He is an excellent manager of his roster. The game this weekend is going to be fascinating. A team that is having a late season surge vs. a team who was surging but now has lost two in a row. Throw in the fact that this is the ultimate rivalry game for both teams and you may have a war. Auburn would love to end the Tide's dream of an NCAA bid. 

BAMA GETS SPANKED IN THE RUPP

Retin Obashon should be SEC MVP

   

We wanted to know how far away Alabama is from being a top team, and on Tuesday night we saw what Exhibit One was. The Tide for all its heart and effort is a long way from being an SEC contender. Kentucky might be the best team in the SEC, but they are not a great team. So many things went bad for the Tide tonight there isn't enough time or space to list them all. And I don't intend to try to list each and every one. We'll get past this and the future, even this season, will get better. This loss will cause the Crimson and White to do one of two things. The Tide can quit, or they can burn the video, never speak of it again,or refocus for the future.


      Anyone who knows anything about basketball didn't think the Tide would win the game. I didn't. Hoping you win and being able to win are two different things. Tonight was a dose of reality of what this program must do to be successful.  The discussion that Bama is an NCAA Tournament player is a remarkable accomplishment for this team.  Most of that credit belong to Coach Johnson and Obasohan. This was the Xavier game all over again. That doesn't mean Alabama won't win some more games this year. The last two games are a rude awakening to the fanbase who wanted to believe the Tide was back. Believe this - it is going to take another couple of great recruiting classes to be a top dog.  Alabama had an almost complete meltdown on Tuesday night but we speculated that this could happen at some point this season. Keep in mind that the loss hasn't set the program back. It just gives fans an idea how far we are away from great.

   

If you think, the Kentucky point guard is the best player in the SEC you'd be mistaken. Retin Obasohan carries Alabama on his back. It is much easier to look good when surrounded by great talent. Obasohan has had the best senior season of any Tide guard in our basketball history. As bad as Kentucky beat Alabama you could easily see that Retin destroyed Kentucky. The Cats couldn't stop him. They didn't have to shut him down; they stopped everyone else. It was as bad as Sheman's March through Georgia. If it had been a prizefight, the referee would stop it. 

   All this talk about getting an NCAA bid is fun. We'll all continue to talk about it, and hope we can still get there. We can, but we aren't a contender. But we aren't a pretender either. We are toddler learning to walk. What do we need? We need a good post player; we need a power forward named Nick King to live up to his high school billing. We'll find a player to take Retin's position, but he can't replace him. We have been spectators to one of the greatest seasons a Bama player has played. As bad as I feel about Tuesday night's game, my optimism for the future is even better. 

Bama must play well tonight

       Tonight we play Kentucky. We play them in Rupp Arena. We play them coming off a loss. That has to be the unholy trinity. The Tide, played perhaps its worst game of late, in their loss to Mississippi State. The NCAA is down to the crunch time. We have 16 wins. We have double digit losses already. I cannot envision a more difficult game to start another winning streak to secure a bid to the NCAA Tournament. Avery Johnson has shown us that he can have his team ready to play after big losses. I can't help but wonder if the loss to Mississippi State was different. Had Alabama beaten State the Tide could travel to Lexington with house money so to speak. That may not be the case now. If Johnson has his team ready for tonight, it will speak volumes about his coaching ability and the resilience of this players.

      When you write a post about such a game and vise-like pressure the Tide must be feeling, it's hard to get a good feeling about tonight's game. If Alabama won tonight, most of the American basketball world would be stunned. It might be the greatest upset in Alabama basketball history. It will most certainly be the most unexpected. A win would almost guarantee a place in the NCAA field. It would set off waves of "what's wrong with Kentucky". It should set off a similar wave of what's right about Alabama.

    Losing the game will not kill Alabama's chances of post-season play. If Alabama loses and wins their last three games, and perhaps a game or two in the SEC Tournament we'll get an invitation to the NCAA. If we finish 20 or 21 and 13, it won't preclude a bid if things in other conferences fall our way. We would get a bid to the NIT and an opening home game based on high fan attendance this season. Don't knock the NIT. It is still a great Tournament, and the team needs to play all the games they can play. We may not win tonight but being competitive is important to the Selection Committee.  Bama needs to show the NCAA that they belong in the field. 

TIDE HITS ONLY 11-21 FROM THE FREE THROW LINE TO LOSE TO STATE AND A WHOLE LOT MORE...

 

COMPLIMENTS OF ROLLTIDE.COM

 I took an unprecedented choice to write a short article before today's game. I am not trying to be an 'I told you so' because I thought the Tide would win.  I wrote the article because I had some severe concerns with State. Let's give credit to Mississippi State for their win. It was hard fought, and they won. Now there is going to be a lot of "we can still make the NCAA." I'm not going to say something might happen which will cause that to happen. At the same time, I want, to be honest in telling you exactly what I think will happen, and what Alabama sorely needs at this time.    Does the Tide have a road to the NCAA? I don't think so, but maybe one can be created with a lot of great play, and some good luck. It had been my feeling and continues to be my belief, with a home loss to any of our final opponents would be fatal. I still believe that. It certainly isn't how I want to feel. Alabama needs to win its last two home games and beat Georgia on the road. Will a road win at Georgia make up for a loss to a low ranked Mississippi State loss. I don't think so.  If we don't make the NCAA here is the stat we can remember: 11-21 from the line on our home floor. That is hard to believe.

     That would be what I'd call step one. If Bama loses any of those games, they are NIT bound. If the gods favor us, and all the stars are in perfect alignment, there is a slim chance we beat Kentucky. Plainly speaking, it would be the biggest upset of the year in NCAA basketball. For the sake of argument let's say Alabama loses to Kentucky and wins three more regular season games. That gives the Tide 18 wins, and you are rarely the recipient of an NCAA bid when that happens. The worst thing Bama has done is to have lost to Auburn and Mississippi State. Those losses are the biggest mistake the Tide could have made. Win, three of the final four games and we, have a fighting chance, to get an invitation if, and this a huge if - Alabama can win at least two games in the SEC Tournament. and one of the wins has to be against a good team. Here's the rub. I think there is only one team in the SEC with enough juice to enhance our chances, and that is Kentucky. LSU and South Carolina have squandered their standing in my opinion. 

     Should the NCAA decide to take five teams from our league, we must convince the Selection Committee we are team number five. We need to beat two teams in the SEC Tournament who are our chief adversaries in making the field. Kentucky will be selected. South Carolina and TAM are likely choices. After that who goes? Round up the usual suspects. 

      TAM beat Kentucky today which will help the Tide's RPI some. It would have been nice if Auburn could have beaten Ole Miss. I understand that the officials made an absolute travesty in today's game. Those things happen. Sooner or later, for better or for worse, Alabama needs to make free throws. That is the third game this season the Tide has lost from 15 feet with no one guarding them. That is a sad thing for such a hard-working bunch of guys. It is also so unnecessary. Sorry if an old school basketball fan is upset. No one in the NCAA should make less than 70% of their free throws. That is a major part of the game. I'm serious when I say that had the Tide made a few free throws we would have 19 wins and 7 losses today.

Instead of being a lock for the big dance we now have to hope and pray. Anyone who tells you otherwise is just dreaming. Sometimes dreams come true. Let's hope that happens for the Alabama Crimson Tide. Johnson can't work a miracle in each game. He can't rebound and he can't shoot free throws. Whether it is the NIT or the perhaps the NCAA, the Tide's is in store for better days. 

    16-10 isn't great, but it can easily be a 20+win season and we do have some impressive wins. Honestly, I don't know if horrible losses can be offset by great wins. Stay tuned. 

LATE BREAKING UPDAYE OF IMPORTANCE: JOE LUNARDI, WHO DESPITE WHAT A LOT OF PEOPLE SAY, HAS THE BEST RECORD FOR PROJECTIONS INTO THE NCAA. THAT'S BECAUSE OF ESPN'S CLOUT WITH THE SELECTION COMMITTEE. I SUSPECT HE GET'S A LOT OF INFO FROM THEM. LUNARDI SAYS WE ARE STILL IN. THAT'S IMPORTANT TO ME BECAUSE OF WHERE HE GETS HIS INFO.

TRAP GAME?

IS STATE A TRAP GAME FOR BAMA?

       

       Trap games. You hear that term in football every season. The same applies for basketball as well. You just rarely hear the term. Alabama has four trap games left this season. They are Mississippi State, Auburn, Arkansas, and whoever is unlucky to draw the Tide,  Seriously, the game today is between two teams closely matched in talent level. The Crimson beat State in Starkville because the Alabama guards shut down the outside shooting of Malik Newman and company. Look for State to have some new sets to try to free up their outside game. On the plus side for the Tide, Taylor has stepped up his game. Gavin Ware is one of the most overlooked players in the SEC.

      Like it or not, the  Tide may not recover from losing any home game on the remaining schedule. Sorry if you disagree. If we do, we'll have to beat Kentucky or make a deep run in the NCAA tournament. The Tide needs just to keep winning and hope one of the lower ranked teams pulls off an upset. Do I think we win today? Yes. Am I worried? Very.

Tide needs full house against Miss. State

'Bama goes for six straight wins in SEC

   On Saturday, Alabama faces its next NCAA elimination game takes place in Coleman Coliseum at 1:30. It can be seen on the SEC Network for those who are unable to attend. Saturday is a big game. I've said before that Alabama lives on the razor's edge as far as making the NCAA field. If you have been reading the various bracketology websites, you know the Tide has projected itself into the Big Dance. That changes from day to day. A loss to Mississippi State would eliminate the Tide, not just from the field, but would make it difficult of making it to the Tournament. A State win would be considered a bad loss for the Tide. Ms. State's has unimpressive RPI of 167. It will take a remarkable run if the Crimson doesn't take care of business. I'd hate to think the Tide needs a win over Kentucky on the road to make the NCAA. 



     There is no reason to believe that the Tide won't beat Mississippi State. The Tide is playing with supreme confidence. State is only 11-14, but they haven't quit. They ruined Vanderbilt's NCAA chance at making the NCAA Tournament. I'm surprised at the State's record this season. Their talent is better than 11 wins.The Bulldogs have five excellent players. Their bench is a little suspect, and they are learning a new system. Why a team like  Alabama can adjust, and State can't remain a mystery. I believe it is the personality of the opposing coaches.  There is not a significant talent gap between the two teams. 

   I know that Alabama would love to have Gavin Ware, Malik Newman, Quinndarry Weatherspoon, Craig Sword, and a couple of other players. State has five starters essentially in double figures scoring. Alabama is favored by six. That's not a lot for a passion filled road team. I'm picking Alabama by 8. But do not take this game for granted. 

    The bigger story is that Alabama is even in the discussion for making the NCAA field. When the season started the media placed the Tide at 13th place in the SEC. What Alabama has done this season is perhaps the most remarkable story in NCAA basketball. Three big names were hired for SEC coaching jobs at the end of last season. Only Avery Johnson has succeeded in having a chance to be in the NCAA. All three teams are rebuilding. Bama is succeeding while rebuilding or would it more appropriate to say he has rebuilt Alabama? As the Coach said, "Buckle up." The man gave us a warning. 

'BAMA KILLS THE TIGER

TIDE SHOWS NCAA THEY BELONG
JOHNSON BRINGS TIDE BACK TO RESPECTABILITY WITH WIN OVER LSU

RETIN HAS CAREER HIGH 35

    Please pay attention SEC. Retin Obsahan might very well be the most valuable player in the league. He is deserving of a first team All-SEC vote. Please pay attention SEC. Avery Johnson is the Coach of Year in the SEC, and it isn't' even close. We all know that other teams, such as Kentucky win all those awards. This year should be different. When you ask what player in the SEC means more to his teams and compares well with other of the same position the name Retin Obasohan leaps to the front. If you don't, believe me, ask the LSU Tigers about Obasohan. Last night, in Baton Rouge, the senior point guard ran over, around, and through the Bengal Tigers on his way to a career-high 35 points. The Tigers simply had no answer to how to stop Obasohan. Whether it was knifing trough the paint to shoot layups or shooting bombs, the Tigers got to watch a great player destroy their team, and possible their NCAA dreams.

Obasahan didn't do it alone. Justin Coleman, the little man,  dropped in 21 points. He was 5-8 from downtown. He also iced the game by making 4-5 free throws at the end when the Tigers were mounting a final comeback. It didn't happen. Coleman seems to be getting red hot at just the right time. Last night, he'd let one fly and was running downcourt knowing he'd made the basket. That downcourt run wasn't a rush to get back on defense; Justin felt he had just bottomed one. 

What about Riley Norris? Here's a man that if all the people in the Bama Nation had to apologize to him for saying he was worthless, he would have to stand in line for hours just hear what those fans had to say. The man who "added nothing" to the team as one fan posted, got 16 rebounds. Not bad for a guy who doesn't have the hops or the size to do that. I'll tell you what he does have. He has best court sense on the floor. He knows who to box out, and he positions himself whee he thinks the missed shot is going to fall. He is the most pro-active rebounder I've seen in quite a while. Arthur Edwards dropped in 4 three points baskets. The most important one stopped an LSU 8 point lead, and stopped both the Tiger and momentum and hushed the crowd. After that, the Tigers were finished. 

Jimmie Taylor didn't have his best offensive night, but he was so active trying to score, he kept Craig Victor and Ben Simmons occupied on defense. As each of those players was surrounding Taylor, Obashan was blasting through the Tigers perimeter. 

The Tigers helped the Tide by making only 20-35 free throws. LSU started missing freebies and it spread like the plague up and down the bench. LSU got the benefit of a lot of questionable calls, but it didn't help. Simmons was only 10-19 from the line. 4 of those misses were the front end of one plus one. Bama, on the other hand, didn't get to shoot but 18. The made 15. Those free throws ended up making a big difference.
The Tide got outrebounded again, but only gave up nine offensive rebounds. That tenacity under the basket helped the Tide stay close. Bama also got what I call the "big boards." Those were the ones who slowed down the momentum and allowed Bama to dictate the pace of the game. The Tide has 14 turnovers which aren't  terrible. Ironically, the Tigers had only five turnovers, but their ball protection didn't help them. Jimmie had four turnovers. Here's the deal. The Tide was throwing a lot of passes to him in traffic, and a couple of those were the fault of the passers and not Taylor. There are simply times when Tide guards to need to understand sometimes they need to know when not to throw the ball inside. Coach Johnson made is team play to the final buzzer. He was so involved in the last three minutes he looked like the energizer bunny. Great coaching on his part. 

    So this win opens up a realistic path to make the NCAA field. They aren't there yet. The Tide needs to win their last home games. Each of their remaining home games is against teams near the basement in the SEC. Keep in mind that Auburn and Mississippi State pulled off upsets last night against Arkansas and Vanderbilt respectively. All those teams are capable of winning in Tuscaloosa. I think that Bama has a chance to beat Georgia on the road. Kentucky will be tough in Rupp,  but what an opportunity for the Tide. Just for the sake of discussion let's say that the Tide finished the SEC regular season with 19 wins. One win in the SEC Tournament will lock the Tide for a spot in the NCAA. Earn twenty wins in the regular season and then tack on couple SEC Tournament victories, and we are talking 8 or 9 seed. Beat Kentucky would be the cherry on the top of ice cream. We could end up with a 5 or 6 feed. There is a lot of optimism in the Tide Nation right now. Let's all remember what the coach said to his team in the 40 seconds of the game last night, "the game isn't over." We are close to securing a bid. But remember close is for horseshoes and nuclear war. 

THE NIT, NCAA, AND LSU

           

I started reviewing some numbers about the NIT and NCAA.  On Sunday, February 14th, Alabama's RPI was a red-hot 37. The week before the Tide checked in at 46. When you look at the records of the 36 teams with better RPI numbers, you'll see that Alabama has the fewest wins of any of those teams. The reason that is important is how it affects the Tide. Here's how - Alabama needs two things to make it into NCAA. They need to keep a "good" RPI, and they need wins. The situation for the Tide is that the only play one team with a better RPI. That team is Kentucky, and it is a road game in the most hostile environment in NCAA basketball. I think the Tide has progressed to the point where the pressure of playing in Rupp won't cause them to fall apart. The real challenge is beating the most talented team in the SEC. They also rebound like the devil was right behind them.

Kentucky, LSU are the big games left on Tide schedule to help Tide...

       Those two games are the only games which will help the Tide elevate their RPI. It would be a tall order to go to Kentucky and come home a winner. Avery Johnson is starting to make me think that alchemy is an actual science.  I began kicking around some numbers about the NIT and NCAA.  On Sunday, February 14th, Alabama's RPI was a red-hot 37. The week before the Tide checked in at 46. When you look at the records of the 36 teams with better RPI numbers, you'll see that Alabama has the fewest wins of any of those teams. The reason that is important is how it affects the Tide. Here's how - Alabama needs two things to make it into NCAA. They need to keep a "good" RPI, and they need wins. The situation for the Tide is that the only play one team with a better RPI. That team is Kentucky, and it is a road game in the most hostile environment in NCAA basketball. I think the Tide has progressed to the point where the pressure of playing in Rupp won't cause them to fall apart. The real challenge is beating the most talented team in the SEC. They also rebound like the devil was right behind them. A win over LSU could send out the message the the Crimson beat the SEC league leaders.  

      The game with Big Blue is the only game which will help the Tide elevate their RPI. It would be a tall order to go to Kentucky and come home a winner. Avery Johnson is starting to make me think that alchemy is an actual science. But I believe it is going to take some positive chemistry to beat the 'Cats. The Selection Committee will be watching the Kentucky team to help them determine their seed. They get to watch Alabama as well. If Bama can play a close game, it will help the Tide past that mythical eye test. A win will put the Tide in the NCAA assuming all remaining home games end up in the winning column. 

What does Bama need to do to wrap up a postseason bid? 
     I'm sticking with my prediction that  it will  take  18 wins to get an NIT bid. I don't discount the Tide might slip into the NIT with 17 wins if they beat LSU or Kentucky. The Tide has three home games they should win. The Tide should beat Auburn, Mississippi State, and Arkansas. Being favored is not the same as winning however. The Tide has LSU, Kentucky, and Georgia on the road. I think if the Tide wins three of those six games they have an NIT lock. Don't forget the Tide could have more than one SEC Tournament. Suddenly Bama has become a name of interest in the SEC and NCAA. I  think it is time to recognize that Alabama has become respectable to the rest of the SEC. The question most Bama fans are asking is the Tide capable of getting an NCAA bid? The answer is yes, and their are several ways to make the cut.

1. Beat LSU and win your home games. Then beat Georgia on the road. Throw in a win or two in the SEC and you have the resume to make the Tournament.

2. Win your home games and beat Kentucky in Rupp. Throw in an SEC win and the Tide is in.

3. Given the quality wins plus "quality losses" to high ranked up teams the Tide might very well get an NCAA bid. They certainly will deserve that telephone call. 

4. Win all your remaining SEC games. That's not probable. I've given up trying to define the probable for this team, however.

5.  Win the SEC Tournament. When you look at the games played in the SEC this season their clearly is not a dominate team. 

6. The Avery Johnson Effect might have an impact to give the Tide the benefit of the doubt. 

     Everyone is sky high right now. Alabama lives on a razor's edge. A losing streak could be possible, although I am feeling much better about a a lot more wins than losses. Alabama is not going to play a bigger game this season than LSU. The Tide has exceeded expectations this year already. What if Auburn, Ole Miss, and the first LSU games were wins? I've got a gut feeling that this team might have something else special in the works.  And don't forget that the Tide needs to finish at least .500 or better. 


       

      

TIDE STUNS THE GATORS IN THE O'DOME

RollTider67 Called This One

     

Thunder and Lightning for the Crimson Tide

 I'll take the crow raw, please. No salt or pepper for me. I picked Florida to win by nine. And boy how happy it is to be wrong. I'll watch this game a couple of more times and still wonder how we won.  We got outrebounded on the offensive boards by 27-7, Let that one sink in for a minute. The Tide was only 14-24 from the free throw line for a measly 58%. We said that to win this game Florida would have to help. They did, but a lot of what happened was the Alabama put on their hard hats and went to work. The defense which Alabama through at Florida was the best I've ever seen. Bama kept the Florida Gators off the three point line, upset their flow, and contested every shot, extrashot, and more extra shots. A stifling defense negated those 20 offensive rebounds.  That, and a spirit that seems to be a bottomless well. Most teams earn a nickname. I think of them as "The Foundation."  Florida shot 29% from the floor. That was 29% on their home floor. The Crimson Tide wore Florida's offense down so low they ended up looking like sawdust. In the second half, the Tide only shot the ball 20 times. They made 12 of those shots for an outstanding 60%.

      If you ever get down and out and believe that nothing goes right, remember this team and keep in mind that nothing is impossible. There must be a thousand ways to win a basketball game and today I learned another way. I could not be any happier or more proud of and for a group of young men and their coaches. We have a tremendously difficult schedule left this season. Here's a consolation - every team that sees Bama up next won't think anything is going to be easy. One thing for sure, you may beat Alabama, but you are going to have to play your best game and then some.

     Jimmie Taylor was a huge difference. He blocked six shots by my count. He caused a lot of other shots to look kind of funny on their way up. One Florida player suffered the rarity of having his blocked shot hit the shooter out of bounds which gave the Tide the ball. The Crimson had only 10 turnovers, and that number will win a ton of games. It helped win the Florida game  61-55.

     So the magical mystery tour continues for the Tide. At 15-9, a solid SOS, and an RPI that will be in high 30's. I'm sticking with my NCAA number of a minimum of 18, but we are close to lock-city for the NIT. 


The best: When Retin Obasahan and Arthur Edwards fouls out within ten seconds with over 5 minutes, the Tide did not panic. They played smart basketball, and built a lead. It was lead that the Gators couldn't catch.

Let's just call today's game a tremendous opportunity 

Does Coach Johnson have something up his sleeve?

        Alabama's quest for a post-season continues today at Florida. The Gators are a ten-point favorite today. That surprising to me given the way the Tide has played in its last three games. When I look at the match-ups in today's game, you see the reason for the spread.  I'm not sure that either of Alabama's inside big men can slow down Florida center John Egbunu. The big Nigerian has dominated the inside with a wrathful vengeance. The other problem is Dorian Finney-Smith, who is averaging right at 16 ppg. DFS is so versatile we don't have a single player, in my opinion, who is the defensive match the Gator's offensive firepower. We have one player who can slow him down, but will Avery Johnson risk playing wearing down Retin Obasahan on DFS when he needs him on offense. The other man to man option is Riley Norris or  Shanon Hale. Hale may not be physically well enough. Norris, who isn't afraid of a corned Cobra, may not have the quickness or the length. 


     Given the match-up problems look for Bama to play a lot of man and do their best to deny easy entry passes into Egnubu. DeVaugn Allen has been knocking down a lot of big baskets as well. The Tide has its hands full today. So how can Alabama beat Florida?

1. We need for Florida to have a bad game.

2. Let's hope we can get the ball inside and then cross our fingers that the home cooking SEC refs call a few fouls on Egnubu. That is not likely.

3. The Tide needs to make the few free throws they are going to shoot.

4. Retin Obasahan must play another great game. He needs to drive to the basket and score. When Florida tries to cut him off the Tide outside shooters, need to have career type games. 

5. The Tide cannot have any scoring droughts. Keep the score in the 60's and play their best defense. 

6. Then the turnover word comes into play. The Tide can't have 15 or more turnovers and expect to win. 

     I'm an optimist, but this is one game they Tide can't let the Gators get off to a quick start. Bama simply doesn't have the firepower to overcome a significant Florida lead. I'm not joking, in some ways, this is the hardest road game the time will play up to this point in the season. A lot of our players will have never played in the O'Dome. It is a shooting nightmare. I would love to pick the Tide to win and have learned to take Avery Johnson very seriously, but Florida is going to be tough to beat. Florida by 9. 

THOUGHTS TO START THE WEEKEND

The man said buckle up didn't he?

  Avery Johnson is getting praise from the national media for the job he's doing with the Crimson Tide. He deserves every positive word I've heard. The Tide doesn't have as much talent as they need. You have to wonder just how good the Tide is going to be when he gets a few prime time players on the floor. Right now he has a conglomeration of kids who play the game with genuine passion and effort. When you look down the roster of the Tide, you quickly realize the team is greater than the sum of their individual parts. You have to believe that Johnson may just be the best coach in the SEC. I wonder what opposing coaches say when preparing for the Crimson Tide? Except for Retin Obasahan, the team doesn't have a star. What is it they have exactly? 

Here's what I think ...

1. The team is a decent shooting group but they aren't the red hot chili peppers.

2. The rebounding is suspect. No, most nights the rebounding is poor. I think the more that Don'ta Hall plays, the better the glass work will become.

3. The Tide is an almost non-existent scoring threat from the inside. When you look at the stats, it seems that often as not the Crimson Time splits even inside. Credit Taylor and Riley Norris for hanging tough inside despite not having size or numbers. Obasahan scores a lot of layups down the lane.

4. For too many turnovers hurt the Tide. The numbers are just too high not to lose a few games they might win. When the Tide keeps that number respectable, the Tide almost always wins.

5. Free throw shooting is average at best. If the Tide could finish the season shooting 75% it would have won at least three more games this season. 

So how does the team win? 

       That is a fun question to try to answer. There are certain areas of the game the Tide executes better than other SEC teams.

1. Keeping within their assigned roles in dead solid perfect. When you put five high school stars on the floor, keeping them under control is not always easy. Ask Bruce Pearl about Bowers and Canty.

2. They are confident shooters. No one on the team is afraid to shoot the ball. It's almost as if they are afraid the coach might get upset if they don't shoot. That type coaching instills confidence and relaxation when you have the ball. Some coaches bench players who miss shots. Johnson might bench you for not shooting. "Shoot, Arthur, shoot" as Edwards likes to talk about is coach.

3. The have the best offensive spacing of any basketball team in the SEC. If you play at Alabama, you are going to understand where everyone is one the floor. Have you ever seen a team that has much as success with one extra pass? You can only do that when you know, someone is where he is supposed to be. 

5. Johnson can evaluate talent. That is evident when you look at Anthony Edwards. At his last stop, he essentially had no role. Johnson watched the grad transfer shoot the ball and said, have I got something in mind for you. What kind of coach wouldn't let that kid play? He can rebound and doesn't make a lot of mistakes. 

6. Coach Johnson isn't afraid to go after top players. Example? Terrance Ferguson. And from what I've been told by a couple of Texas coaches that Bama fans can expect another couple of prospects to roll with the Tide soon.
7. Avery Johnson is a great defensive coach. That is one thing that Johnson and Grant both did and are doing with the players on the team. Knock Grant for whatever reason, but the man could teach defense. Now we see Johnson coaching the offense. He doesn't have the talent for a high paced offense. He doesn't have the depth as well. But you can see the fast breaks run perception, and the sets the run. He is the best dead ball coach for setting up a play I've seen. 

       Those are just a few observations of a team that is overachieving. The Tide needs four more wins to get to the NIT. Is the NCAA possible? It isn't probable due to the remaining season opponents. If Bama beats Florida on Saturday, we might start the conversation about dancing in March. Right now, I'm so happy with where we are and excited about where we are going. Roll Tide Roll. 

Final Note: I spoke on the phone to an ex-SEC assistant coach who has been a scout and an NBA assistant. He said that Avery Johnson is one of kind. He quoted a line from the cinema Tomorrowland. "...it sudden, envitable, and it's going to happen". He was talking about Anthony Johnson's chances of success in the SEC.

BAMA HANDS THE SEC A WARNING FOR THE FUTURE

TAM falls 63-62

 

     Yesterday we suggested that Alabama could beat TAM if they did certain things. Looking back, I'd say the Tide did those things. They kept turnovers to ten until very late in the game. They won the battles of the boards thanks in large part to Don'ta Hall, a freshman quickly turning into a man, and we shot they ball well enough win. Free throws were not great, but they were just enough to make some difference.

        You have to love this team of "who are those guys"? Retin Obasahan is our best player. Retin who? Everyone else is someone who has a role, a specific function, and they do it well. They are doing it better and better, and have now reached a point where those in know say, 'you better mind your business against Alabama because they are not going to quit.' Teams that refuse to quit are dangerous. They just will not believe they are going to lose. Except for a couple of early season games, no one has buried this team. 

     The Tide hangs around to the bitter end of every game. When they hold on to the ball, rebound decently and shoot well they are going to clean your plough. This team cares out each other. They don't care both individual accolades. They care about one another and winning. They love their coach. They walk up in the student section for selfies and photos. The cheer each other. When Jimmie Taylor made two free throws the bench ignited. When Don'ta Hall made a late game block that could only be seen, not described, the Alabama bench exploded in cheers. They love to play, and we get to watch them.


     In several years, this is going to be a team that fans and the media remember they are the group that turned things around.  They were undertalented but never outfought. They never died because their mantra was neve say die. And we are lucky enough to watch them. They are planting seeds that can grow into a mighty forest. Avery Johnson, the little general, took a match and lit a fire. The TAM game was the fourth win against a top twenty-five team. Most of this pioneer group come back. Anthony Grant found some good solid players, and Avery Johnson is turning them into something special. I don't know what their final record will be at the end. I do know that nothing about this team isn't about ending, it's about beginning. Thank you guys. There's something in the air. You can feel it. 
        
     

TONIGHT IS THE NIGHT FOR STARS OVER ALABAMA TO SHINE
HALE EXPECTED TO PLAY

     Tonight's Texas A & M game is the most important game Alabama will have played in the season. If Alabama wins, you have a too feel really good about our NIT chances. You can't discount a slim possibility on the NCAA Tournament either. If the Tide loses tonight the chances of either postseason Tournament look pretty bleak. The good news is that 'Bama gets to play on their home floor. The crowd, the familiarity of the rims, some home cooking, and some sort of undefinable confidence seems to happen at home.  The bad news is that TAM is a darn good basketball team that gives us some matchup problems. Billy Kennedy can coach the round ball. Joe Lunardi had TAM as a two seed before the Aggies lost their last game. In other words, they are an excellent team that should, by all accounts, beat Alabama. But, by any account, we know that doesn't always happen. I'm not sure that the Aggies, full of Texas swagger, are going to walk into to Coleman Coliseum and win. Let's put it this way. It would not surprise me with TAM won because they are clearly the better team. It wouldn't surprise me if Alabama pulled out a win, because home teams, win when they shouldn't.


   

 If we asked Avery Johnson, Jr. how good TAM is, he probably says they are tall, tough, and can shoot the ball. He might not say that TAM is the best team in the SEC, but they'd have to be no worse than the top three. Trying to figure out how Alabama will play TAM reminds me of the time, when lost in South Alabama, how I got to Pensacola. The man I asked pondered a bit and finally said, "you can't get there from here." That's how I feel about the AGGIES. I don't think that getting there against TAM has much to do with TAM. Avery Johnson is worried about what his own team must do, and or not do. John Woodand never scouted other teams. He thought it was a waste of time.  He was only concerned with what his team was going to do. "If we do what we are good at doing, and execute well, it doesn't matter what our opponent does". 

         

So much in basketball is repetitive. But here goes.

1. Bama cannot match TAM's talent level. We are not even close. But that doesn't mean that lesser players can't play better than the opposition which has the most talent. Alabama, as individuals and as a team must do that.

2. We can't throw the ball all over the court and have unforced errors. If we can keep our turnovers to 10-12 it will help.

3. For once, our inside players, have to break even on the boards. I'd forget trying to run off misses and commit more players to rebounding. 

4. Can we make 80% of our free throws?

5.. How much and how well can Shannon Hale Play? 

6.  Alabama needs to keep TAM below 70 points. If the point total gets too high, I'm not sure we can keep up.

7. Can we shoot 50% from the floor, and make 40 % from behind the arch. 

8. We have to try to let Taylor score inside. If he can keep up is recent production TAM will have to give him some respect. 

9. Okay, Retin, you need to have a great game that is better than all the great games you've already played. 
10. Justine, Antony, and Riley need to have a great night shooting the ball. 

That's all we have to do. We don't have to do those things for the rest of the season. Just doing for two halves is enough, and we need to try to challenge House in order to draw fouls and keep him off the floor. 

My head says TAX by 6. 

But I'm going with my heart on this one and say Bama by 2.

'BAMA CONTROLS ITS OWN DESTINY

IN RUN FORTHE POSTSEASON

THE TEAM AND JOHNSON HAVE EXCEEDED

PRE-SEASON EXPECTATIONS...

 

Edwards for three

   The NCAA always tells us that how a team finishes their last ten games are important. If that is true (not that we should believe the NCAA in most things) the Crimson Tide has an excellent opportunity to prove to the Selection Committee will have to take a hard look at the Tide should they win another five or six games. Just for the sake of discussion, let us assume that Alabama wins another four or five games. That would also include the SEC Tournament.  Five wins give the Tide 18 wins. Will the NCAA select a team with only 18 wins? I don't think so, but, those final wins would be over LSU, Kentucky, and Texas A&M. Add those wins to Witchita State, Notre Dame, and South Carolina and all of a sudden the Tide has a darn good resume. 

     

Coach Johnson

It's always easy to look back at the close losses. We almost beat Oregon, Ole Miss, and Vandy. In my opinion, only Xavier and Kentucky have flat out beat the Tide. Bama hung around in all their other losses. The team has had more than a small share of close losses. They also have some close wins. Alabama's cache has lost some clout in the last ten years. That hurts. Avery Johnson is repairing that.  I can't be honest and say we will be dancing in March. But if we finish well we should get an NIT bid and a couple of home games. Alabama once again drew the unlucky straw in playing Kentucky twice. That is something the SEC home office has to fix. It is unfair not to play a home and home, but if some team only have to play one team at home, it rigs the standings. 

Bill Ellis

     Alabama can go a LONG WAY in enhancing their hopes of the postseason by beating  Texas AM on the road in the next game. To beat a top ten team on their home floor going to help. Can the Tide beat TAX? I think they can, but Hale will have to be back at one hundred percent, and the turnovers and rebounding have to be in Johnson's favor. Coleman will have to play up to his potential, and the shooting is going to need to be over 50%. Hit 80% from the line and we'll  win. I also think TAM needs to help us. 

Great Radio Team - Chis and Brian

    If Alabama makes it to the NCAA, it would be the greatest coaching job in Bama history. If Bama makes it to the NIT, I  will not be the least bit disappointed. The remaining schedule is tough, but the opportunity is wonderful. In all candor, it is going to be tough given who is left on  the remaining slate. If that happens we will all be disappointed. The key thing for to remember is we are building for the future. Our guys have played with heart and character. They have laced 'em up in every game. I haven't seen a jump back from a fumble ala Cam Newton all year. 

  TIDE RIPS THE MISSOURI TIGERS 80-71

'Bama cuts down turnovers to 13

Alabama dominates the boards by 8

   

   First and foremost, the Tide whipped Missouri 80-71. The score in no way indicates how one sided the game was for 'Bama. I'll give credit for Missouri for not giving up. They made the score respectable and played hard. Like Alabama, they were playing short-handed. The win takes the Tide to a 13-9 overall and improves the SEC record to 4-6. Alabama takes on #8 Texas A&M next week. Despite the team's overall record, the Tide is 4-2 against ranked teams this season. The win over Missouri keeps Alabama's hopes for the post-season alive. A win over Texas A&M will require the NIT and hopefully NCAA to give the Crimson and White some serious consideration. Nothing would be cast in stone, but those wins are impressive. 

   Alabama was led in scoring by Riley Norris, who keeps on keeping on in the SEC. Norris had another solid game with 18 points.  He also had five rebounds. Retin Obasahan had 16 points and was the Tide's leading rebounder with 7.  The best thing I saw in the game was good inside play by Taylor and Kessens. They combined for 18 points and ten boards. Anthony Edwards played an excellent game with 11 points which included three from downtown. Coleman made a couple of nice assists and looked like he is getting closer to full speed.

    The A&M game is the most important game left on the Tide's schedule. A&M was recently listed as #2 seed by Joe Lunardi. That seems pretty high to me, but his projections are usually spot on. To get to the NCAA the Tide as to find some way to pass TAM, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, South Carolina and maybe Vandy. Florida got killed by Kentucky and SC beat TAM. I don't think those two losses hurt Florida and TAM from getting in the field but will affect their seeding. I think Georgia still has an outside chance of making the NCAA.