Saturday, February 20, 2016

TIDE HITS ONLY 11-21 FROM THE FREE THROW LINE TO LOSE TO STATE AND A WHOLE LOT MORE...

 
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 I took an unprecedented choice to write a short article before today's game. I am not trying to be an 'I told you so' because I thought the Tide would win.  I wrote the article because I had some severe concerns with State. Let's give credit to Mississippi State for their win. It was hard fought, and they won. Now there is going to be a lot of "we can still make the NCAA." I'm not going to say something might happen which will cause that to happen. At the same time, I want, to be honest in telling you exactly what I think will happen, and what Alabama sorely needs at this time.    Does the Tide have a road to the NCAA? I don't think so, but maybe one can be created with a lot of great play, and some good luck. It had been my feeling and continues to be my belief, with a home loss to any of our final opponents would be fatal. I still believe that. It certainly isn't how I want to feel. Alabama needs to win its last two home games and beat Georgia on the road. Will a road win at Georgia make up for a loss to a low ranked Mississippi State loss. I don't think so.  If we don't make the NCAA here is the stat we can remember: 11-21 from the line on our home floor. That is hard to believe.

     That would be what I'd call step one. If Bama loses any of those games, they are NIT bound. If the gods favor us, and all the stars are in perfect alignment, there is a slim chance we beat Kentucky. Plainly speaking, it would be the biggest upset of the year in NCAA basketball. For the sake of argument let's say Alabama loses to Kentucky and wins three more regular season games. That gives the Tide 18 wins, and you are rarely the recipient of an NCAA bid when that happens. The worst thing Bama has done is to have lost to Auburn and Mississippi State. Those losses are the biggest mistake the Tide could have made. Win, three of the final four games and we, have a fighting chance, to get an invitation if, and this a huge if - Alabama can win at least two games in the SEC Tournament. and one of the wins has to be against a good team. Here's the rub. I think there is only one team in the SEC with enough juice to enhance our chances, and that is Kentucky. LSU and South Carolina have squandered their standing in my opinion. 

     Should the NCAA decide to take five teams from our league, we must convince the Selection Committee we are team number five. We need to beat two teams in the SEC Tournament who are our chief adversaries in making the field. Kentucky will be selected. South Carolina and TAM are likely choices. After that who goes? Round up the usual suspects. 

      TAM beat Kentucky today which will help the Tide's RPI some. It would have been nice if Auburn could have beaten Ole Miss. I understand that the officials made an absolute travesty in today's game. Those things happen. Sooner or later, for better or for worse, Alabama needs to make free throws. That is the third game this season the Tide has lost from 15 feet with no one guarding them. That is a sad thing for such a hard-working bunch of guys. It is also so unnecessary. Sorry if an old school basketball fan is upset. No one in the NCAA should make less than 70% of their free throws. That is a major part of the game. I'm serious when I say that had the Tide made a few free throws we would have 19 wins and 7 losses today.

Instead of being a lock for the big dance we now have to hope and pray. Anyone who tells you otherwise is just dreaming. Sometimes dreams come true. Let's hope that happens for the Alabama Crimson Tide. Johnson can't work a miracle in each game. He can't rebound and he can't shoot free throws. Whether it is the NIT or the perhaps the NCAA, the Tide's is in store for better days. 

    16-10 isn't great, but it can easily be a 20+win season and we do have some impressive wins. Honestly, I don't know if horrible losses can be offset by great wins. Stay tuned. 

LATE BREAKING UPDAYE OF IMPORTANCE: JOE LUNARDI, WHO DESPITE WHAT A LOT OF PEOPLE SAY, HAS THE BEST RECORD FOR PROJECTIONS INTO THE NCAA. THAT'S BECAUSE OF ESPN'S CLOUT WITH THE SELECTION COMMITTEE. I SUSPECT HE GET'S A LOT OF INFO FROM THEM. LUNARDI SAYS WE ARE STILL IN. THAT'S IMPORTANT TO ME BECAUSE OF WHERE HE GETS HIS INFO.

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