Odds makers say 3-3 finish likely
Vegas says Tide has a 32.9% to make the field...
Missouri host the Gators in a statement game...
Whether we like them or not you just can't ignore the Las Vegas odds makers. Over the years I've learned when it is all said and done they are pretty close to what is going to happen. Right or wrong, those odds makers say Bama has a 33% chance of making the Tournament if they 20-11. When we lost Engstrom I didn't think we could win 20 games. I think this team has done about as well as possible given Engstrom's injury and Pollard's slow development. We still haven't won 20 number yet, but I like our odds, and so does Vegas. What is interesting in looking at the Vegas numbers is what happens if Bama wins 21, 22, or 23. The goombas put the odds of Bama making it at 75% of they beat everyone remaining on their schedule. The number is 50% if the Tide wins 21 or 22. I thought the number would be higher. Under different scenarios we have a better chance if Kentucky, Missouri, or Ole Miss takes a nose dive. What really upsets me is that Kentucky, without Noel and lost to Bama to head, is a big favorite over the Tide even if we have the better record.
A couple of betting houses say the Tide is even money to dance, if we hang on to second place. We really have a great schedule to finish. It gives us a chance to have three fairly easy wins at home and a chance to win something on the road. The road game we probably have the most chance is LSU. If we win that on Saturday then we have the Rebels. If you believe that anything is possible then we have Florida. What we can't do is slip up and let Georgia, Mississippi State, or hated Auburn beat us at home. Don't look for that to happen. If Alabama can finish in the top four we get a double bye in the SEC Tournament.
Later on Tuesday night, Missouri and Florida play. A Missouri win will be bad for Bama. A Florida win would help some. Missouri is currently 18-7 and would fall to 18-8. Bama is 17-8 and would move to 18-8 as well. Ole Miss is now 19-6 and play South Carolina next. The Rebels have the easiest remaining schedule and it is difficult to see them losing more than one game for the balance of the season. They would be 25-6 and deserve a bid. If the Rebels lost to Alabama and LSU they would still finish at 23-8.
Missouri has a chance to make their NCAA statement tonight. They play the Gators at in Columbia. I think it will be a good game, and don't be surprised if Missouri wins. I'd put my money on Florida but Missouri has a great home court advantage. Alabama will be a double digit favorite over hapless State. Talk about a fall from grace - I bet Stansbury doesn't look nearly so bad right now to a lot of State fans. Bama''s fight for the NCAA isn't over. If Bama could finish 5-1 and win a couple in the SEC the NCAA might still say no, but they'd have a lot of explaining to do
Vegas says Tide has a 32.9% to make the field...
Missouri host the Gators in a statement game...
A couple of betting houses say the Tide is even money to dance, if we hang on to second place. We really have a great schedule to finish. It gives us a chance to have three fairly easy wins at home and a chance to win something on the road. The road game we probably have the most chance is LSU. If we win that on Saturday then we have the Rebels. If you believe that anything is possible then we have Florida. What we can't do is slip up and let Georgia, Mississippi State, or hated Auburn beat us at home. Don't look for that to happen. If Alabama can finish in the top four we get a double bye in the SEC Tournament.
Later on Tuesday night, Missouri and Florida play. A Missouri win will be bad for Bama. A Florida win would help some. Missouri is currently 18-7 and would fall to 18-8. Bama is 17-8 and would move to 18-8 as well. Ole Miss is now 19-6 and play South Carolina next. The Rebels have the easiest remaining schedule and it is difficult to see them losing more than one game for the balance of the season. They would be 25-6 and deserve a bid. If the Rebels lost to Alabama and LSU they would still finish at 23-8.
Missouri has a chance to make their NCAA statement tonight. They play the Gators at in Columbia. I think it will be a good game, and don't be surprised if Missouri wins. I'd put my money on Florida but Missouri has a great home court advantage. Alabama will be a double digit favorite over hapless State. Talk about a fall from grace - I bet Stansbury doesn't look nearly so bad right now to a lot of State fans. Bama''s fight for the NCAA isn't over. If Bama could finish 5-1 and win a couple in the SEC the NCAA might still say no, but they'd have a lot of explaining to do
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