Despite better play we are a long-shot
December just won't go away....
I don't think anyone loves Alabama basketball more than my family. We agonize over every game, every missed free throw, and anytime a defensive player turns his back on the ball. For me, it's been a full life time of cheering for the second best basketball program in the SEC. I'm sure there is a basketball fan who has watched more games pulling for the Tide than me. If so, I'd like to meet him or her. We'd have a lot to talk about. Being an Alabama basketball fan is very frustrating. This year has been the most frustrating of all. As much as I'd love for us to make the NCAA it is going to be an uphill climb regardless of how we finish. One saving grace is that this has been such a bizarre year in college basketball anything is possible. When we look back at the season and find ourselves on the outside looking in, we have to remember December. Three home losses will be responsible for our absence. The NCAA always says they look at the later half of the season and look for improvement. If that's the case we should be looked at very closely. But will we? I do know from personal conversations within the SEC powers to be that selecting only 3 SEC teams will not be considered fair. We all have to remember that the Selection Committee does not select the best 64 teams. They have to job of trying who are the best teams after the conference representatives are chosen by the conferences. It isn't an easy job
Not the best 64 teams...
That means that if a team with a losing record wins a conference tournament, and that is method a conference chooses their representative, someone gets screwed. Alabama is on the "somebody who might be screwed list." In all fairness, the Tide played their way into that position. Still not all teams are created equal. Kentucky would be picked over Alabama even if the Tide beat them when they were at full strength,and even if we have a better record. I think Alabama would be Kentucky 20 points if they played tomorrow. You think Tennessee gets some real credit for beating Kentucky? Not really. The perception is that the Vols beat KU when they lost Noel, but it might not hurt Kentucky that much because Noel was hurt. That's crazy but true. There are blue bloods in college basketball and Alabama isn't a member of the club. At least not yet. That's not to say that perhaps one day they will not be in that select group. It takes a national championship or two to get into that club.
A lot of season left and anything might happen...
There is a lot of season left. Some odd things might happen. Actually, some odd things will happen and most of them happen on Selection Sunday. Just for the sake of argument let's say the Tide wins 5 of their last 6 games. That puts the Tide at 22-9. That's not a bad record. It's not earth shattering either. It should be good enough to get in however, although the Committee will look at Alabama and leave them out. The best way for Alabama to make it into the tournament is win 5 of 6 and beat Florida. I think the Tide can play Florida a pretty good game, but to beat them on the road isn't going to happen. Losing to Auburn hurt, but that will not be the determinative reason to not be chosen.
If Bama could make it to the SEC finals having 5 of their last 6 that should do the trick. It might also help us if Missouri was to fall apart. Same goes for Ole Miss but at least the Tide has a chance to beat them in Oxford. If Ole Miss gets the same type of home cooking from the refs as Georgia received we couldn't beat the Rebels in Heaven with Jesus playing point guard. A travesty to Georgia. My belief is that Bama should try to finish second in the SEC, alone or tied with someone, and dare the NCAA not to take us. We are not a great team, but we have the type defense that could cause some major problems for someone in the NCAA. In talking with a couple of NCAA coaches I know they wouldn't like to play Alabama in an early round. They both said that the scary thing about Bama is not just the defense, but the fear of what might happen if the shots start to drop.
So will be able to make it ?
Can we make it? Not likely if you believe we have to win 2 of 3 road games, and all our remaining home games just to have a chance. It's possible but not probable. All we can do is keep winning and hope. If we win 23 games in the regular season and a couple of more in the SEC that will be more wins than most teams will have on Selection Sunday I hope our players understand that winning every game we should win in December is as important as in January. I think it is fair to say we lost 4 games in the PreSEC that we should have won. We'd 21-4 with 6 games left. We'd be wondering if we would be a 3 or 4 seed. The reason I think the Tournament needs further expansion is that too many good teams get left out and far to many weak sisters from no name conferences get automatic bids.
Basketball is a great sport with odd beginnings in seasons which rarely have anything to do with their endings. Logically, it seem hard to imagine that Bama will make the field. I remember a couple of years ago when we beat Georgia two times in the last week of the season. One was a stunning comeback in the SEC Tournament. Alabama didn't make the field that year. Georgia did. That was the NCAA's idea of fair play. Still, I cannot help but to think that this particular team which has overcome so much will a find a way to cross one more bridge.
December just won't go away....
That means that if a team with a losing record wins a conference tournament, and that is method a conference chooses their representative, someone gets screwed. Alabama is on the "somebody who might be screwed list." In all fairness, the Tide played their way into that position. Still not all teams are created equal. Kentucky would be picked over Alabama even if the Tide beat them when they were at full strength,and even if we have a better record. I think Alabama would be Kentucky 20 points if they played tomorrow. You think Tennessee gets some real credit for beating Kentucky? Not really. The perception is that the Vols beat KU when they lost Noel, but it might not hurt Kentucky that much because Noel was hurt. That's crazy but true. There are blue bloods in college basketball and Alabama isn't a member of the club. At least not yet. That's not to say that perhaps one day they will not be in that select group. It takes a national championship or two to get into that club.
A lot of season left and anything might happen...
There is a lot of season left. Some odd things might happen. Actually, some odd things will happen and most of them happen on Selection Sunday. Just for the sake of argument let's say the Tide wins 5 of their last 6 games. That puts the Tide at 22-9. That's not a bad record. It's not earth shattering either. It should be good enough to get in however, although the Committee will look at Alabama and leave them out. The best way for Alabama to make it into the tournament is win 5 of 6 and beat Florida. I think the Tide can play Florida a pretty good game, but to beat them on the road isn't going to happen. Losing to Auburn hurt, but that will not be the determinative reason to not be chosen.
So will be able to make it ?
Can we make it? Not likely if you believe we have to win 2 of 3 road games, and all our remaining home games just to have a chance. It's possible but not probable. All we can do is keep winning and hope. If we win 23 games in the regular season and a couple of more in the SEC that will be more wins than most teams will have on Selection Sunday I hope our players understand that winning every game we should win in December is as important as in January. I think it is fair to say we lost 4 games in the PreSEC that we should have won. We'd 21-4 with 6 games left. We'd be wondering if we would be a 3 or 4 seed. The reason I think the Tournament needs further expansion is that too many good teams get left out and far to many weak sisters from no name conferences get automatic bids. Basketball is a great sport with odd beginnings in seasons which rarely have anything to do with their endings. Logically, it seem hard to imagine that Bama will make the field. I remember a couple of years ago when we beat Georgia two times in the last week of the season. One was a stunning comeback in the SEC Tournament. Alabama didn't make the field that year. Georgia did. That was the NCAA's idea of fair play. Still, I cannot help but to think that this particular team which has overcome so much will a find a way to cross one more bridge.
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