Logic dictates large Florida win...
'Bama will have to shoot better than they have this season...
The Light Brigade, Pickett's Army, or the Spanish Armada comes to mind. All three left their home turf and suffered historical losses. I can't help but wonder if that might happen to Alabama tomorrow. On Paper, this is a one sided affair. Florida can be beaten, but I'm not sure that Alabama can create any mismatches to pull of a stunning upset. In theory, the Tide has a good defensive perimeter to cut down on the three point shot. They can also shoot three points shots with anyone in SEC when they are hot. The problem is that we are not hot. Aside from Releford it seems the rest of the team is mired in a slump. Lacey is having terrible second part of the season. He has seen his season's average fall to 36%. That's not horrible, but its not what Bama needs.
Lacey is a classic and set and shoot player. The longer he plays at point the fewer chances of his kind of shots occur. On the other hand, Trevor Releford is making 43% of his long balls. Levi Randolph is struggling right now. He is still playing great defense, but his shooting has been painful to watch. He is knocking down only 31% of three point attempts. Rodney Cooper doesn't shoot a great percentage (30%) but has a knack for making big shots. His elevated game of late has been key to Tide success. Obasahan has been playing more and has done well. He lifted the team against Auburn and when Trevor Lacey was on the bench in foul trouble, I thought Alabama played their best ball. Alabama's inside game has gotten better in the form of a morphed Jacobs and Gueye. Neither are anywhere in the category of Florida's Patric Young.
Alabama would have to do all the little things to win. They need to make a lot of free throws. That doesn't seem likely, they need to cut down their turnovers under 10 and that's tough, they need to get more than half of the 50/50 balls. Alabama can do that. They need to keep Gueye in the lineup. For all his good points Moussa can pick up the most useless fouls. He gets fouls 30 feet away from the basket for example. They need to break even on the boards, and that has been tough against lesser teams. It is possible that all the planets and stars fall in perfect alignment for Alabama. If that's the case and if Florida has a bad game we can keep it close. I'm thinking Florida by low double digits. I know Alabama wants to win this game. It would put them in the very edge of the NCAA. I also know that coaches will not sacrifice preparation for Florida, and spend more time on Ole Miss. Oh yeah, and if that isn't hard enough we have a Saturday - Tuesday turnaround on the road. I think we will play well. Winning might be tough. If Bama could play well on the road in the O Dome, it could carry over to Ole Miss. That might be one thing we win at Florida.
'Bama will have to shoot better than they have this season...
Lacey is a classic and set and shoot player. The longer he plays at point the fewer chances of his kind of shots occur. On the other hand, Trevor Releford is making 43% of his long balls. Levi Randolph is struggling right now. He is still playing great defense, but his shooting has been painful to watch. He is knocking down only 31% of three point attempts. Rodney Cooper doesn't shoot a great percentage (30%) but has a knack for making big shots. His elevated game of late has been key to Tide success. Obasahan has been playing more and has done well. He lifted the team against Auburn and when Trevor Lacey was on the bench in foul trouble, I thought Alabama played their best ball. Alabama's inside game has gotten better in the form of a morphed Jacobs and Gueye. Neither are anywhere in the category of Florida's Patric Young.
Alabama would have to do all the little things to win. They need to make a lot of free throws. That doesn't seem likely, they need to cut down their turnovers under 10 and that's tough, they need to get more than half of the 50/50 balls. Alabama can do that. They need to keep Gueye in the lineup. For all his good points Moussa can pick up the most useless fouls. He gets fouls 30 feet away from the basket for example. They need to break even on the boards, and that has been tough against lesser teams. It is possible that all the planets and stars fall in perfect alignment for Alabama. If that's the case and if Florida has a bad game we can keep it close. I'm thinking Florida by low double digits. I know Alabama wants to win this game. It would put them in the very edge of the NCAA. I also know that coaches will not sacrifice preparation for Florida, and spend more time on Ole Miss. Oh yeah, and if that isn't hard enough we have a Saturday - Tuesday turnaround on the road. I think we will play well. Winning might be tough. If Bama could play well on the road in the O Dome, it could carry over to Ole Miss. That might be one thing we win at Florida.
- Shoot over 50% overall and well over 50% from outside
- Make the free throws
- break even, or come close under the glass
- keep turnovers to a bare minimum
- Hope Florida has a bad game.
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