Friday, January 11, 2013

Can Bama beat UT?

who matches up with jarnell stokes?
almost a must win game for the Tide...

        Bama faces the Vols of Tennessee tomorrow in Tuscaloosa at high noon. The game will be covered by ESPN2 on national television. Is this a must win game for the Tide.  Every game played in Tuscaloosa is a must win game. At 8-6 the Tide has no margin for a home loss. The Vols are 8-5 but are a better team than Alabama because of Stokes. I'm not saying the Tide won't beat the Vols, but it is an uphill battle because of #5. Stokes is the heart of the Tennessee program, and is a dynamic future NBA star. He is active around the boards, can jump out of the gym, and has a bevy of offensive moves to throw around. He is also a great rebounder. In other words, Alabama has no one who can remotely hope to match up with him.  

          So what can the Tide do?  They probably will try to two-three zone the Vols. That leaves a couple of pretty dangerous shooters outside to find some sweet spots for threes. This is going to be the recurring theme for Alabama all season long. How do we play against a good interior player? The answer is probably we don't play well enough.  I'm not saying we won't win some games. In looking to determine whether we might win the next game, the first thing to do is see what the other team has in the paint. If the have a better than average player we are in trouble. The next,  look for is what kind of outside shooting the other team has? If the answer to that is very good or great we are in trouble. Tennessee does have a couple of outside shooters who are good but they are streaky. Right now every Tennessee outside shooter is having a bad year. 33% is the best they have in the starting lineup.  As a team the Vols are shooting around 27%. So what does that mean? It seems we always give up big games to poor outside shooting teams. The reason is because we have to protect the interior so much the other players know they are going to get a lot of good looks and relax waiting for the shots.

       Once again we have the dynamic duo of Gueye and Jacobs in the middle. While both seem to be giving 100% they each have some problems. Gueye is lost on the offensive end of the floor. He is rebounding well, and disrupts many shots down low. I think it is fair to say that he hasn't lived up to the fans expectations. The same applies to Nick Jacobs. Last season, Jacobs showed some real promise. The season is not yet over, and he could get back on track. In the game before last he looked like he may have snapped out of his slump. However, his performance against Missouri was not exactly awe inspiring. We've said it before, but it bears repeating. This team will only be as good as they can fix the problems they have inside.  Kudos to Releford for a career high. Where has the highly touted Lacey gone? One thing is very obvious - unless Cooper, Randolph, and Lacey come to play on the offensive end the season isn't going to get any better.

        I have to say that Tennessee is a bad basketball team. The Tide is a 4 point favorite. Even as bad as Tennessee is, and the fact we are at home, I am surprised we are favored that much. Let's hope the Vegas crowd knows what's going on. Alabama may have played the best game of their season for 3/4 of the Missouri game. If that type play can carry over on Saturday. If it does we will win. If not, I think Tennessee's inside game might be too much for the Tide. One thing both team have in common - they each have a short bench and both teams only have 8 players who get meaningful minutes. I think this is a game the Tide is ready to win.

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