THE NIT, NCAA, AND LSU

           

I started reviewing some numbers about the NIT and NCAA.  On Sunday, February 14th, Alabama's RPI was a red-hot 37. The week before the Tide checked in at 46. When you look at the records of the 36 teams with better RPI numbers, you'll see that Alabama has the fewest wins of any of those teams. The reason that is important is how it affects the Tide. Here's how - Alabama needs two things to make it into NCAA. They need to keep a "good" RPI, and they need wins. The situation for the Tide is that the only play one team with a better RPI. That team is Kentucky, and it is a road game in the most hostile environment in NCAA basketball. I think the Tide has progressed to the point where the pressure of playing in Rupp won't cause them to fall apart. The real challenge is beating the most talented team in the SEC. They also rebound like the devil was right behind them.

Kentucky, LSU are the big games left on Tide schedule to help Tide...

       Those two games are the only games which will help the Tide elevate their RPI. It would be a tall order to go to Kentucky and come home a winner. Avery Johnson is starting to make me think that alchemy is an actual science.  I began kicking around some numbers about the NIT and NCAA.  On Sunday, February 14th, Alabama's RPI was a red-hot 37. The week before the Tide checked in at 46. When you look at the records of the 36 teams with better RPI numbers, you'll see that Alabama has the fewest wins of any of those teams. The reason that is important is how it affects the Tide. Here's how - Alabama needs two things to make it into NCAA. They need to keep a "good" RPI, and they need wins. The situation for the Tide is that the only play one team with a better RPI. That team is Kentucky, and it is a road game in the most hostile environment in NCAA basketball. I think the Tide has progressed to the point where the pressure of playing in Rupp won't cause them to fall apart. The real challenge is beating the most talented team in the SEC. They also rebound like the devil was right behind them. A win over LSU could send out the message the the Crimson beat the SEC league leaders.  

      The game with Big Blue is the only game which will help the Tide elevate their RPI. It would be a tall order to go to Kentucky and come home a winner. Avery Johnson is starting to make me think that alchemy is an actual science. But I believe it is going to take some positive chemistry to beat the 'Cats. The Selection Committee will be watching the Kentucky team to help them determine their seed. They get to watch Alabama as well. If Bama can play a close game, it will help the Tide past that mythical eye test. A win will put the Tide in the NCAA assuming all remaining home games end up in the winning column. 

What does Bama need to do to wrap up a postseason bid? 
     I'm sticking with my prediction that  it will  take  18 wins to get an NIT bid. I don't discount the Tide might slip into the NIT with 17 wins if they beat LSU or Kentucky. The Tide has three home games they should win. The Tide should beat Auburn, Mississippi State, and Arkansas. Being favored is not the same as winning however. The Tide has LSU, Kentucky, and Georgia on the road. I think if the Tide wins three of those six games they have an NIT lock. Don't forget the Tide could have more than one SEC Tournament. Suddenly Bama has become a name of interest in the SEC and NCAA. I  think it is time to recognize that Alabama has become respectable to the rest of the SEC. The question most Bama fans are asking is the Tide capable of getting an NCAA bid? The answer is yes, and their are several ways to make the cut.

1. Beat LSU and win your home games. Then beat Georgia on the road. Throw in a win or two in the SEC and you have the resume to make the Tournament.

2. Win your home games and beat Kentucky in Rupp. Throw in an SEC win and the Tide is in.

3. Given the quality wins plus "quality losses" to high ranked up teams the Tide might very well get an NCAA bid. They certainly will deserve that telephone call. 

4. Win all your remaining SEC games. That's not probable. I've given up trying to define the probable for this team, however.

5.  Win the SEC Tournament. When you look at the games played in the SEC this season their clearly is not a dominate team. 

6. The Avery Johnson Effect might have an impact to give the Tide the benefit of the doubt. 

     Everyone is sky high right now. Alabama lives on a razor's edge. A losing streak could be possible, although I am feeling much better about a a lot more wins than losses. Alabama is not going to play a bigger game this season than LSU. The Tide has exceeded expectations this year already. What if Auburn, Ole Miss, and the first LSU games were wins? I've got a gut feeling that this team might have something else special in the works.  And don't forget that the Tide needs to finish at least .500 or better.