'BAMA NEEDS GOOD START TO SEC ...

Tide needs Key to settle down and just play

 

Johnson needs to win this one.

  I think it is a fair statement to say there has been a lot of disappointment registered by Tide fans over Bama's pre-season SEC finish. Whether or not that disappointment is warranted remains to be seen. Expectations were too high, to begin with. I'd like to suggest that all of our fans might be better served with supporting the program and giving it additional time to succeed. Johnson has some tough decisions to make in the next two weeks. The main decision is how long do you stick with Braxton Key to come around after his knee surgery? I'm not knocking Key.  For those of us who have suffered knee surgery, it is quite clear that not everyone gets back to 100%.  With Key, it appears that he is physically well, but seems to be trying too hard.  I am sure the coaches are telling him that you have to let the game come to you. You can't press it to happen. Basketball is the ultimate sport of action and reaction. There is a fine balance between forcing the issue and controlling the issue of better play. One thing that makes me believe that Key will come around is that his fundamentals are solid. Solid fundamentals always help in your game. 

Are the returning players having a hard time with the new game?

    One additional thing we should keep in mind regarding all the returning players from last season. They all played in an offense last year that was about as fast as molasses on a cold day. Now, they are being asked to run a fast-paced run and gun game. I think that all of our players from last year are having some trouble in finding exactly how they fit in. Our freshman learned the new offense from the start. All of our returning players are going to get better once they adapt to the speed of what Johnson wants them to do.

 

Time for Key to break out 

 We have some tremendous upsides. We also have some weaknesses that are easily recognized. One, we are still not solid in defending the interior. The effort is there as soon as Sexton and Petty understand that their perimeter defense sets that stage for what happens in the paint is dependant on what they do outside the quicker we improve. We are not shooting well despite getting good looks. We will have good nights and bad nights. That is the nature of the beast. A solid defense can help those poor shooting nights.  

Only one loss that should have been a W?

     If you look at the wins and losses it seems to me that the UCF game was only game we "should" have won. I would have picked Arizona and Texas to beat us anyway. I throw out Minnesota as an outlier due to the 5 on 3. That was a game we might have lost anyway. From a ranking viewpoint, the UCF game loss at home was pretty bad. Anytime you lose a home game it hurts. Texas was listed as a home game but in reality, it was a neutral site game in a lot of ways. That loss hurt us but will not keep us out of the NCAA if we finish well. 

    I picked us to be 9-3 at the break. 8-4 is not bad, and the strength of schedule will back that up. What is troubling to me is the close wins against some teams. The Tide has as the 3rd toughest SOS in the NCAA. We all need to remember that. I was disappointed with how we won some games, but we still get to ink a W by those games. In the end, the Selection Committee is not going to remember how much a team wins games by. How much you lost by is what kills you.  We finished very close to where we should be in terms of wins and losses. 

A key game with Texas A&M...

   

Hogg may not play against the Tide

 Alabama now opens SEC play with a game against Texas A&M. They are ranked as the #6 team in the latest poll. This is one of those games that might propel the Tide into a nice winning streak. Another home court loss might sting the Tide so much that they hit the skids. This might well be the biggest Avery Johnson game since he signed on with 'Bama. The Tide catches a break. D.J. Hogg, the Aggies leading scorer, will still be on a three-game suspension. A&M struggled with Buffalo in College Station for 3/4 of the game.  The Aggies then put the New York team away. 86-73. It was one of those games where last minute fouls put A&M on the line to inflate the numbers. 

     Who gave the only loss in the twelve games they have played?  Arizona, and by a similar score that the Wildcats beat the Tide. Will Alabama beat A&M? I don't know. They can beat the Aggies. To win the Tide must do three things.

1. break even or better on the boards.

2. keep turnovers down to a minimum

3. Shoot the three much better.

   If the Tide can shoot the three around 45% they should win. If not, 8-4 becomes 9-5 and that will cause a lot of questions. It may or not be put up or shut up. A loss will not be NCAA fatal. But it makes you wonder just how good this team can be. I still think we will be fine, but I'd love to see the Tide pull off an upset here. 

UPDATE: just got off the phone with a long time friend who is scouting for an NBA team. He told me that Sexton will be the first guard taken in the NBA draft. I asked him about Trae Young. Sexton and Young are the top two guards in college. Young is also a freshman and is a better shooter than Sexton. That is where the comparison stops. After that, Sexton is better in all regards. 

Sexton gets the edge because he "may be the fastest guard I've ever seen." Speed is what separates Sexton from all other guards. 


TIP OFF - SATURDAY THE 30TH AT 5 PM