TIDE HAS ITS HANDS FULL WITH RED-HOT MISSISSIPPI STATE...
I Have always believed that a team that plays a game the day before a team drawing a bye has an advantage. First, that team which has played a game is no longer nervous. Second, those teams are pumped from winning the day before, and finally, good play can generally carry over for one night. This is painting today's game with a broad brush, but it so frequently you can't ingnore the facts. Add to the equation that Alabama, even though they have already beaten State, is really not that much better than State. Beating a team three times in one season is no easy trick. Ask Auburn. So, the question of the day for Tide fans is can the team beat State for the third time in one season? I don't know. Anyone who can explain how this Tide team plays on any given day is selling snake oil.
Yesterday, I picked the Alabama to win this game by eight points. After watching State eviserate LSU I'm not so sure. Logically, Alabama should win today's game; however, logic isn't a stat. This Alabama team has played a lot of hard nosed defense. Time after time the coaches of the SEC say that Tide plays the most physical defense in the league. Bama doesn't do anything special. No, the Tide simply plays an in your face man to man defense. You may win against Alababama but you will get beaten to death in the process. Both teams know exactly what the other will do on offense. Their is a caveat with that statement. Yesterdeay, Avery Johnson didn't hesitate to reveal the Tide had a lot of new offensive sets. He didn't say exactly what they were of course. But my bet is that it means pounding the ball inside to control the paint. Then, after doing that you see a lot of kick outs to shooters on the three point line who hopefully will shoot the ball well. That's always the question with this team. Will they shoot well? Alabama is slow and very methodical on offense. That's purposeful. Alabama wants to keep the score low and shorten the game. Lately, we have seen the team keep opponents to low offensive outputs, but faildc to score enough points to win even when the score is in the fifties and sixties.
Alabama is going to center their game on rebounding. Control the defensive end to deny State the run outs, and grab as many offensive rebounds to score second chance baskets. That's not brain surgery. All teams try to do that, but with 'Bama it is an intrical part of their offensive game plan. I think we can pretty much assume that the Tide will be mediocre from the free throw line, and will shoot in the low forty percent range from the field. If the Tide makes a third of their outside shots it would be a pattern that repeats itself game after game. What the Tide needs is for Riley Norris to get hot, hope that Dazon Ingram shoots more threes, and Armond Davis continuies to play well. Braxton Key is likely to give Bama his usual game. This is also a game where Jr. has a chance to get to basket. Expect him to get more time on the floor.
The seccond area that Johnson has addressed is keeping turnovers down to a number the Tide can live with. He'd like for the Tide to keep that number around ten. That's probably wishful thinking given the history of the team. State turns the ball over with frequency as well. This might be one of those stats that cancel each other out. In other words, this might be a low scoring sloppy basketball game. That is exactly what Alabama wants. The mantra for the Tide is we are going to physically abuse you, we might not shoot well, we'll control the glass, and wear you down. It sounds a lot like a Tide football game plan.
State is so diverse on offense it is hard to pin down who is going to have the hot hand. So many have great shooting skills. Alabama is going to get into faces of Bulldog shooters and make it hard to shoot. Tide is also going to deny State getting the ball into the hands of their best players. Those are tall orders for the Tide. Alabama has to win games by winning individuals battles all over the floor. The won't win them all, but they believe they can win enough to win a low scoring games. That is the Tide's key to victory. Great shooting would be an unexpected bonus. I expect this is going to be one of those grind your teeth and have another beer games, for Tide's fans. It's an odd way to approach a game offensively. Alabama knows they aren't able to score but still believe that can win. They have done that. They have failed to do that almost as often. It might not be fun to watch, but you have to admire a team with so many limitations be able to win games.
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| Bama needs steady game from Key |
Yesterday, I picked the Alabama to win this game by eight points. After watching State eviserate LSU I'm not so sure. Logically, Alabama should win today's game; however, logic isn't a stat. This Alabama team has played a lot of hard nosed defense. Time after time the coaches of the SEC say that Tide plays the most physical defense in the league. Bama doesn't do anything special. No, the Tide simply plays an in your face man to man defense. You may win against Alababama but you will get beaten to death in the process. Both teams know exactly what the other will do on offense. Their is a caveat with that statement. Yesterdeay, Avery Johnson didn't hesitate to reveal the Tide had a lot of new offensive sets. He didn't say exactly what they were of course. But my bet is that it means pounding the ball inside to control the paint. Then, after doing that you see a lot of kick outs to shooters on the three point line who hopefully will shoot the ball well. That's always the question with this team. Will they shoot well? Alabama is slow and very methodical on offense. That's purposeful. Alabama wants to keep the score low and shorten the game. Lately, we have seen the team keep opponents to low offensive outputs, but faildc to score enough points to win even when the score is in the fifties and sixties.
Alabama is going to center their game on rebounding. Control the defensive end to deny State the run outs, and grab as many offensive rebounds to score second chance baskets. That's not brain surgery. All teams try to do that, but with 'Bama it is an intrical part of their offensive game plan. I think we can pretty much assume that the Tide will be mediocre from the free throw line, and will shoot in the low forty percent range from the field. If the Tide makes a third of their outside shots it would be a pattern that repeats itself game after game. What the Tide needs is for Riley Norris to get hot, hope that Dazon Ingram shoots more threes, and Armond Davis continuies to play well. Braxton Key is likely to give Bama his usual game. This is also a game where Jr. has a chance to get to basket. Expect him to get more time on the floor.
The seccond area that Johnson has addressed is keeping turnovers down to a number the Tide can live with. He'd like for the Tide to keep that number around ten. That's probably wishful thinking given the history of the team. State turns the ball over with frequency as well. This might be one of those stats that cancel each other out. In other words, this might be a low scoring sloppy basketball game. That is exactly what Alabama wants. The mantra for the Tide is we are going to physically abuse you, we might not shoot well, we'll control the glass, and wear you down. It sounds a lot like a Tide football game plan.
State is so diverse on offense it is hard to pin down who is going to have the hot hand. So many have great shooting skills. Alabama is going to get into faces of Bulldog shooters and make it hard to shoot. Tide is also going to deny State getting the ball into the hands of their best players. Those are tall orders for the Tide. Alabama has to win games by winning individuals battles all over the floor. The won't win them all, but they believe they can win enough to win a low scoring games. That is the Tide's key to victory. Great shooting would be an unexpected bonus. I expect this is going to be one of those grind your teeth and have another beer games, for Tide's fans. It's an odd way to approach a game offensively. Alabama knows they aren't able to score but still believe that can win. They have done that. They have failed to do that almost as often. It might not be fun to watch, but you have to admire a team with so many limitations be able to win games.
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