Alabama hopes to snap the Gator chomp...
Losing sneak is now nine games...
Here's an interesting fact. Anthony Grant has never beaten his old coach, Billy Donavon. The number now stands at 9. Florida is 3-3 in the league and is only 10-9 overall. This seems like the game to end the streak, but never count out Billy D. The line opened with the Tide being a 2 point favorite but has swung to the Gators being the favorite by 1.
Alabama is also 3-3 in the league, but is a respectable 13-6 overall. Florida's RPI is 85. That's nowhere near the lofty Florida standards. Their non-conference RPI is only 96. However; the SOS is 25. How does that compare with the Crimson Tide? Their RPI is a solid 45 and non-league is a very average 63. The Tide checks in with an overall 40 on their SOS. Florida has played a more difficult schedule but have few wins to show for their efforts. The one area that Tide fans should remember is this stat - Alabama's non-conference SOS is a lackluster 128. Florida's is 23. Therein lies the difference between the two schools. Florida has played a much tougher schedule. I hate the RPI. It can be so misleading at times. In applying the eyeball test, which I favor, the Gators are probably a little better than the Tide. Since the game will be played in the vacant confines of Coleman Coliseum, the normal home-court advantage with not be as significant. It would be enough to make this a pick 'em game at least.
Streaks are funny things. The main reason that the Gators have won 9 in a row over Bama is talent. They have had a lot more than the Tide. The other reason is that Florida plays terrific defense. This season is no different. They always have great athletes and really good players. This season the edge is pretty close. I give the Gators a slight edge. Very slight. Florida also has four new starters. Only the sharpshooting Michael Frazier returns. He is averaging 13.9 per game. This kid can fill it up from the outside. If he gets it going then the Tide is in trouble. Frazier is 6-4 which means that Rodney Cooper will have a win span advantage at least. What the Gators like to do is dribble penetrate and kick back to Frazier. If he has time to set and shoot he'll kill you.
The second scorer for Florida has been Dorian Finney-Smith who knocks down 13.7 ppg. He's 6-8 and is a good rebounder. He has improved a lot since the season started according to his coach. Jon Horford, the younger brother of Al, is 6-10, 245 pound senior. I'd expect Taylor to match with him when the Tide goes Man. Five Star recruit Kasey Hill plays the point and he's averaging 4.5 assist per game. Eli Cooper, who is a combo guard, rounds out the starters.
Florida extended their SEC winning streak to 24 after winning the first three SEC games. They've now lost four in a row. The Gators had Ole Miss on the ropes in Oxford last week before falling by one point. They lost to a much improved Georgia team in Athens, and took one on the chin when they lost to LSU by 18 in Gainesville. That was a major shocker to Florida fans.
The truth about tonight's game is that it is extremely important to Alabama. Florida is not going to make the NCAA field unless they get on a winning streak of major proportions, and other teams slip. It's possible, it isn't probable. Alabama still has some dim hopes of making the NCAA. A win tonight move the Tide to 14-6. There are lot of games left. If the Tide can get to 20 in the regular season and wins a couple in the SEC Tournament they can get in. 22 wins is cinch in my opinion. But the Tide can't slip up tonight. Against Auburn, Kessens was limited, Tarrant got into foul trouble, and Norris caught two early fouls, and Bama never got in an offensive flow. We've talked about their fatigue earlier this week. I personally think this is a key game for the Tide. Beating Florida, for Alabama, would be huge. Grant beating Donavon would be a relief. Anytime the pupil beats his teacher it feels great. Heck, it'd make Billy happy as well. He's that kind of guy.
Keys to winning:
1. Shoot 20 free throws and make 75% or better;
2. Good perimeter defense to keep Taylor alive and well.
3. Try to establish something, anything, a nibble or crumb inside; or,
flatten out the defensive wings to create some space for the guards
inside.
4. Where ever Michael Frazier spots up don't leave him. If someone slips pas
the zone do not collapse to help inside. Find Frazier and deny him the ball.
5. Keep the turnovers down to 5 a half. Come out hard and determined.
6. I'd like to see Coach Grant ask Levi to shoot a lot more.
7. Crash the boards the entire game.
There is nothing that we need to do that might be unusual. We just need to play our hard nosed defense, rebound better, and try to take of the ball. Maybe we make some outside shots which would be nice. I believe that Florida is going to use a match up zone to try to keep our guards out of the paint.
Trying to predict a winner when Alabama plays is an exercise in futility. We know what we need to do. The question is, as always, will we do that. I expect to see a big game out of Tarrant, Cooper, and Randolph. Anything else we get on the offensive end is gravy. It's time for Kessens to get tough. He's way to soft around the basket. Taylor has no back down in him. That is what Kessens can learn from his teammate.
Losing sneak is now nine games...
Here's an interesting fact. Anthony Grant has never beaten his old coach, Billy Donavon. The number now stands at 9. Florida is 3-3 in the league and is only 10-9 overall. This seems like the game to end the streak, but never count out Billy D. The line opened with the Tide being a 2 point favorite but has swung to the Gators being the favorite by 1. Alabama is also 3-3 in the league, but is a respectable 13-6 overall. Florida's RPI is 85. That's nowhere near the lofty Florida standards. Their non-conference RPI is only 96. However; the SOS is 25. How does that compare with the Crimson Tide? Their RPI is a solid 45 and non-league is a very average 63. The Tide checks in with an overall 40 on their SOS. Florida has played a more difficult schedule but have few wins to show for their efforts. The one area that Tide fans should remember is this stat - Alabama's non-conference SOS is a lackluster 128. Florida's is 23. Therein lies the difference between the two schools. Florida has played a much tougher schedule. I hate the RPI. It can be so misleading at times. In applying the eyeball test, which I favor, the Gators are probably a little better than the Tide. Since the game will be played in the vacant confines of Coleman Coliseum, the normal home-court advantage with not be as significant. It would be enough to make this a pick 'em game at least.
Streaks are funny things. The main reason that the Gators have won 9 in a row over Bama is talent. They have had a lot more than the Tide. The other reason is that Florida plays terrific defense. This season is no different. They always have great athletes and really good players. This season the edge is pretty close. I give the Gators a slight edge. Very slight. Florida also has four new starters. Only the sharpshooting Michael Frazier returns. He is averaging 13.9 per game. This kid can fill it up from the outside. If he gets it going then the Tide is in trouble. Frazier is 6-4 which means that Rodney Cooper will have a win span advantage at least. What the Gators like to do is dribble penetrate and kick back to Frazier. If he has time to set and shoot he'll kill you.
The second scorer for Florida has been Dorian Finney-Smith who knocks down 13.7 ppg. He's 6-8 and is a good rebounder. He has improved a lot since the season started according to his coach. Jon Horford, the younger brother of Al, is 6-10, 245 pound senior. I'd expect Taylor to match with him when the Tide goes Man. Five Star recruit Kasey Hill plays the point and he's averaging 4.5 assist per game. Eli Cooper, who is a combo guard, rounds out the starters.
Florida extended their SEC winning streak to 24 after winning the first three SEC games. They've now lost four in a row. The Gators had Ole Miss on the ropes in Oxford last week before falling by one point. They lost to a much improved Georgia team in Athens, and took one on the chin when they lost to LSU by 18 in Gainesville. That was a major shocker to Florida fans.
The truth about tonight's game is that it is extremely important to Alabama. Florida is not going to make the NCAA field unless they get on a winning streak of major proportions, and other teams slip. It's possible, it isn't probable. Alabama still has some dim hopes of making the NCAA. A win tonight move the Tide to 14-6. There are lot of games left. If the Tide can get to 20 in the regular season and wins a couple in the SEC Tournament they can get in. 22 wins is cinch in my opinion. But the Tide can't slip up tonight. Against Auburn, Kessens was limited, Tarrant got into foul trouble, and Norris caught two early fouls, and Bama never got in an offensive flow. We've talked about their fatigue earlier this week. I personally think this is a key game for the Tide. Beating Florida, for Alabama, would be huge. Grant beating Donavon would be a relief. Anytime the pupil beats his teacher it feels great. Heck, it'd make Billy happy as well. He's that kind of guy.
Keys to winning:
1. Shoot 20 free throws and make 75% or better;
2. Good perimeter defense to keep Taylor alive and well.
3. Try to establish something, anything, a nibble or crumb inside; or,
flatten out the defensive wings to create some space for the guards
inside.
4. Where ever Michael Frazier spots up don't leave him. If someone slips pas
the zone do not collapse to help inside. Find Frazier and deny him the ball.
5. Keep the turnovers down to 5 a half. Come out hard and determined.
6. I'd like to see Coach Grant ask Levi to shoot a lot more.
7. Crash the boards the entire game.
There is nothing that we need to do that might be unusual. We just need to play our hard nosed defense, rebound better, and try to take of the ball. Maybe we make some outside shots which would be nice. I believe that Florida is going to use a match up zone to try to keep our guards out of the paint.
Trying to predict a winner when Alabama plays is an exercise in futility. We know what we need to do. The question is, as always, will we do that. I expect to see a big game out of Tarrant, Cooper, and Randolph. Anything else we get on the offensive end is gravy. It's time for Kessens to get tough. He's way to soft around the basket. Taylor has no back down in him. That is what Kessens can learn from his teammate.
No comments:
Post a Comment