Saturday, March 8, 2014

Alabama - Arkansas is alway exciting...

Series tied at 23...

 

 
      From the minute that Arkansas joined the SEC they found a rival in basketball with Alabama. Since day one the series has been special. It is probably the most even series in the SEC today. In fact, even today the game looks like it will settle into a pick 'em type affair. From forty minutes of hell and Nolan Ryan to the unexpected hero such as Eric Washington these two teams have brought more excitement to the hardwood than you could have imagined. 

          The teams seems to be headed in opposite directions right now. The Razorbacks are on a late season run that probably will get them into the NCAA. Alabama has won only 12 games and can only get back into their locker room. There couldn't be two more diametricaly opposed coaches. Mike Anderson, who helped create the chaotic full court car wreck offense vs. Anthony Grant who is so cool and collected you wonder if he has a pulse sometimes. His ball control game has kept a basically untalented Alabama team in a lot of games this season. Will today be hog heaven or will the Tide rise for one last occasion for Trevor Releford?  The Vegas line on this game has gone back and forth, and if were still a betting man you couldn't get me to lay a dime on this one. Alabama is a different team at home. Despite what many Tide fans think the home team has shown a great deal of improvement over the last third of the season. The insertion of Hale and Taylor has paid off. Arkansas is big and mobile on the inside. Both teams are fast and quick.  Arkansas probably shoots the ball better than Alabama but they haven't shot the rock that well on the road. If the Tide can have another good home team shooting night they can win. 

The Match ups as I see them:

1. Of the recognized NCAA statistics Arkansas leads Bama in every one except points allowed. Bama needs to win at least 1/2 those other statistical battles.  

2. Keep the turnovers to 12 or less, but cause 12 or more.

3. Shoot 50% or so from the field

4. Make 7-10 three point baskets.

5. Find three scoring options

6. Slow, slow, and slower game pace

7. Try to break even on the defensive boards.

8. Keep Taylor out of foul trouble and get some good minutes from Carl 

9. 80% or better from the free throw line

10. And finally, get some noise from  the crowd

 

 
   If Bama wins they can open up in the SEC Tourament with Mississippi State. That might give Bama some momentum going into the second round against a team that hasn't played yet. Bama's nerves might already be steadied in that game. Alabama needs a big game from Hale,  Releford, and Randolph. Cooper is going to draw the hardest defensive assignment and will be overmatched size wise. If Alabama can play their 2/3 and 1-3-1 zone has well as they did in Lexington we have a chance. Arkansas can be red hot or ice cold. Let's hope for ice cold. Bama had the Razorbacks on the ropes until very late when the Tide's lack of depth slowed them down.  I think Bama can win this game. Arkansas has the better incentive to win, but that isn't necessarily bad.  

 Bama by 4.

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