'BAMA AN NCAA FIELD TEAM?

JURY STILL OUT IN MY OPINION

Just to be in the hunt is remarkable

  

Edwards rips one

   I'd like to start this blog off by saying I love Alabama basketball. There may be a lot of you that love the Tide as much as me, but none enjoys it more. In my basketball life, I have watched over 1200 Alabama games. My father and I personally viewed the longest shot in college basketball history and witnessed the Johnny Dee and the Rocket Eight play some of the best basketball ever played at the University. From that point on most of you have at least some knowledge of who was our coach and how they played. I've seen the great, the good, the mediocre, and the horrible. I'm not sure how many surviving fans can say that. I hope a lot of us are still around. This hoopla over the Tide's chance to play in the NCAA is a grain of sand on the beach.  That's not to say it isn't fun, and I'm hopeful, of course. 

     One thing I've learned over that period there is never "the most important game" the Tide has played. Every era has their most important games. This year is no different. Different players, a fiery new coach, and the yearning by fans for a new start fuel expectations. It shouldn't be any other way. If you love the Tide, you want them to win. We transfer football like greatness in our desires. That is fundamentally unfair to our basketball team. I think with my background it is fair to say it will be wonderful to make the NCAA or the NIT. That would be using the crimson colored vision approach. I'm not sure the Tide is NCAA Calibre, at least not yet. Another three or four game winning streak might change my might. We all want our beloved Crimson Tide to make the field, but all this talk about next four out, last four in, and what our current seed might be mean absolutely nothing until we play our last game in the SEC Tournament. The talk might be fun and sell newspapers, or cause us to click on a helpful site. That's all it means. 

    Alabama didn't look like an NCAA team against Mississippi State or Kentucky. We looked only marginally better against Auburn. We aren't hitting on all eight cylinders so to speak. If we play the as poorly in our last  games,  we can be beaten by both Arkansas and Georgia. We can say a few good things about a very game Auburn team, and of course, the obligatory we came back to beat theTigers.  But to have to come from behind to win that game was disturbing to me. Something is wrong. Can Johnson fix it?

    I hope that  two huge slam dunks in prime time will lead to a coming out party of Michael Kessens? Obasahan found himself trapped in defensive gimmicks set to keep him out of the paint. The best player we have figured out a way to lead his team to victory by a monumental last six minutes. If he isn't named First Team All-SEC, there is no justice. Don't look for justice. Look for favoritism as usual. Arthur Edwards returned from the living dead as well. Riley Norris's hand injury is affecting his game. Without Norris, the Tide is not going to make the NCAA.  Coleman is showing some life. Don'ta Hall played his top game of his best year, as Jimmie Taylor watched from the bench.

     Good teams make their free throws. The reason we didn't beat Auburn by 15 or more was the second worst free throw shooting I've ever seen. Luckily, Auburn was even worse from the line. That allowed us to win. NCAA teams don't last long with those type performances. Tide fans, like most fans, tend to overlook unsettling things about their teams. If the Tide can get back to their fine play before the two losses, we will make the NCAA. If we lose another regular season game, we will drop like a hot rock.

     Almost the experts have us somewhere in the field right now. That is merely a snapshot in time. The real photo will take place on Selection Sunday. Will we make it.?I honestly don't know. Place the emphasis on the honestly, please.

AUBURN COMES TO TOWN TODAY - LET'S WELCOME THEM TO TOWN IN THE TYPICAL BAMA TRADITION

   

  If Alabama wants to be a part of the NCAA Tournament, it starts tomorrow with Auburn. Saturday is going to be a great game with two teams that are fairly even in talent in my opinion. Tyler Harris is due to return to the starting lineup for AU, and he's a nice solid player. He was kept out due to concussion protocols. His insertion into a game gives the Tigers a seven-man rotation. It's been quite a few games since that happens. T.J. Dunnins has been back in the lineup since injuring a knee earlier in the season. Bowers seems to have some big games when playing Alabama. Talk on the AU campus is that the Tigers are going to sweep the Tide for the first time since Noah was eligible. 

     In reality, this is not a game about the Auburn Tigers. It is a game about Alabama and whether they can start a new winning streak. The Tide was thumped by Kentucky and played their worst game since Xavier. Alabama's NCAA chances are getting dim. If the Tide as any chance they have to win their last three games, and I feel the need to get one or two more in the SEC Tournament. No one can honestly say what it will take to get into the Field. There are far too many games on the bubble, and who knows what those teams are going to do.

     Alabama must regain their confidence, which appeared to disappear in the Kentucky game. It also seemed that everyone but Retin Obasohan went brain dead. Auburn is a spirited and highly competitive bunch. They beat a more talented Georgia team in Auburn earlier in the week. The bottom line here is what I said about State. We have to ready. Alabama is an 11 point favorite. This Alabama has knocked to the canvass. Now we will find out if they can get back up. They did earlier in the season. They've lost only two games which we should have won. Those games were Auburn away and State at home. My source who was once on the Selection Committee, tells me that at minimum Bama needs to win its last three games. One is a road game in Georgia. Our RPI is not going to rise much due to the low RPI of our opponents.  When I asked if he thought the Tide need to win a game or two in the SC. "He said every team would like to do that. The wild card is upsets in postseason league Tournaments and what bubble teams play well going down the stretch." He went on to say that the Tide is  "really" on the bubble. Look for other bubble teams which lose while you win is the key. Perhaps the best post I've seen is by BAMA16, who gives us an excellent breakdown of what's what in Bubbleville. Kudos to him or her for their hard work.
Here's today's menu for success:

1. Bama must shut better. Both teams shoot around 42%. We need to be the team who does better.
2. Up the ante on defense. Auburn finally have 7 go to players in their rotation, but a lot of those players have played a lot of minutes.
3. Will anyone help Retin? I'm talking about Hale, Edwards, or Riley. Someone care to chips in?
4. Hope that Jimmie Taylor stays out of foul trouble, and he keeps Bowers in check.
5. I'm almost afraid to mention making free throws.
6. Let's hope the refs give us our fair share of home cooking.
7. Fan support must be proud, loud, and never let up. Visit the Cameron Crazies for further instructions. I'm talking about non-students. Remember we are the sixth man.

Tide by 5 or more as the tractor takes a hit today.

TIDE FACES A SUDDENLY HOT AU TEAM THIS WEEKEND...



      his may sound a little over the top. Based upon Alabama's last two games, all of a sudden AU is an important basketball game. It's not just because they are the barn. Alabama needs to get back in gear, and a home game against your in-state arch-rival may be just the ticket. Alabama needs to regroup and start shooting the ball. What Kentucky did to the Tide isn't relevant to this weekend's game. Kentucky's talent was so much better than Alabama's it isn't even close. The talent levels will be much closer this weekend. 
   
Retin was best guard on floor at Kentucky

          After watching the game, I think Retin Obasohan would be the only Bama player that could make the UK first eight players. This Saturday, Retin Obasohan, will once again be called on to carry the Tide to a win. At the start of the season, I speculated that Retin was going to make an All-SEC team, and he is underrated by the media 'experts'. Perhaps the word ignored would be a more accurate description of what the whiz kids thought of Retin.

       In my opinion, he is the best guard in the SEC and has every right to be named SEC Player of the Year. For that to happen his teammates, need to cut out the sloppy play and help him a little. They need to help him more than a little. I applaud Johnson for allowing him to rest in the last few minutes of the Kentucky game. Ask John Calipari, who the big dog was on Tuesday night. Calipari took some extra time to tell the senior what a great game he had just played. 

What to do this weekend?

     Let's set the table for the weekend. What's needed?

1. Arthur Edwards needs to return to his earlier form.

2. Riley Norris must have some sets run for him to shoot.

3. In fact, the entire team needs to shoot the ball more.

4. Just play defense in the manner the Tide has done most of the season.

5. I'd take Michael Kessens into the back of the locker room and give him the message - play harder, play meaner, or sit on the bench a be a cheerleader. His lack of aggressive play is hurting the Tide. His weak ball handling has been going on long enough. He needs to show us more than a glimpse here and there. It's time to like a junk yard dog and not a lost puppy.

6. Same for Taylor. Be a man under the boards. Let me clarify. I think his shot blocking is super. He needs to pull down a lot more rebounds. In fairness to Taylor, those high screens take him away from the basket on the offensive end. But on the defensive end, he needs to kill the 'Eye of the Tiger'' this weekend. 

Pearl is a good coach like him or not?

     I know we like to call Bruce Pearl "the sweat hog" as a joke. He is one helluva coach and don't ever confuse his persona with his ability. This man has proven he can coach at every coaching stop he makes. You may not like him, but don't ever underestimate him. AU's win over Georgia on Tuesday night was a great victory for his program. He is an excellent manager of his roster. The game this weekend is going to be fascinating. A team that is having a late season surge vs. a team who was surging but now has lost two in a row. Throw in the fact that this is the ultimate rivalry game for both teams and you may have a war. Auburn would love to end the Tide's dream of an NCAA bid. 

BAMA GETS SPANKED IN THE RUPP

Retin Obashon should be SEC MVP

   

We wanted to know how far away Alabama is from being a top team, and on Tuesday night we saw what Exhibit One was. The Tide for all its heart and effort is a long way from being an SEC contender. Kentucky might be the best team in the SEC, but they are not a great team. So many things went bad for the Tide tonight there isn't enough time or space to list them all. And I don't intend to try to list each and every one. We'll get past this and the future, even this season, will get better. This loss will cause the Crimson and White to do one of two things. The Tide can quit, or they can burn the video, never speak of it again,or refocus for the future.


      Anyone who knows anything about basketball didn't think the Tide would win the game. I didn't. Hoping you win and being able to win are two different things. Tonight was a dose of reality of what this program must do to be successful.  The discussion that Bama is an NCAA Tournament player is a remarkable accomplishment for this team.  Most of that credit belong to Coach Johnson and Obasohan. This was the Xavier game all over again. That doesn't mean Alabama won't win some more games this year. The last two games are a rude awakening to the fanbase who wanted to believe the Tide was back. Believe this - it is going to take another couple of great recruiting classes to be a top dog.  Alabama had an almost complete meltdown on Tuesday night but we speculated that this could happen at some point this season. Keep in mind that the loss hasn't set the program back. It just gives fans an idea how far we are away from great.

   

If you think, the Kentucky point guard is the best player in the SEC you'd be mistaken. Retin Obasohan carries Alabama on his back. It is much easier to look good when surrounded by great talent. Obasohan has had the best senior season of any Tide guard in our basketball history. As bad as Kentucky beat Alabama you could easily see that Retin destroyed Kentucky. The Cats couldn't stop him. They didn't have to shut him down; they stopped everyone else. It was as bad as Sheman's March through Georgia. If it had been a prizefight, the referee would stop it. 

   All this talk about getting an NCAA bid is fun. We'll all continue to talk about it, and hope we can still get there. We can, but we aren't a contender. But we aren't a pretender either. We are toddler learning to walk. What do we need? We need a good post player; we need a power forward named Nick King to live up to his high school billing. We'll find a player to take Retin's position, but he can't replace him. We have been spectators to one of the greatest seasons a Bama player has played. As bad as I feel about Tuesday night's game, my optimism for the future is even better. 

Bama must play well tonight

       Tonight we play Kentucky. We play them in Rupp Arena. We play them coming off a loss. That has to be the unholy trinity. The Tide, played perhaps its worst game of late, in their loss to Mississippi State. The NCAA is down to the crunch time. We have 16 wins. We have double digit losses already. I cannot envision a more difficult game to start another winning streak to secure a bid to the NCAA Tournament. Avery Johnson has shown us that he can have his team ready to play after big losses. I can't help but wonder if the loss to Mississippi State was different. Had Alabama beaten State the Tide could travel to Lexington with house money so to speak. That may not be the case now. If Johnson has his team ready for tonight, it will speak volumes about his coaching ability and the resilience of this players.

      When you write a post about such a game and vise-like pressure the Tide must be feeling, it's hard to get a good feeling about tonight's game. If Alabama won tonight, most of the American basketball world would be stunned. It might be the greatest upset in Alabama basketball history. It will most certainly be the most unexpected. A win would almost guarantee a place in the NCAA field. It would set off waves of "what's wrong with Kentucky". It should set off a similar wave of what's right about Alabama.

    Losing the game will not kill Alabama's chances of post-season play. If Alabama loses and wins their last three games, and perhaps a game or two in the SEC Tournament we'll get an invitation to the NCAA. If we finish 20 or 21 and 13, it won't preclude a bid if things in other conferences fall our way. We would get a bid to the NIT and an opening home game based on high fan attendance this season. Don't knock the NIT. It is still a great Tournament, and the team needs to play all the games they can play. We may not win tonight but being competitive is important to the Selection Committee.  Bama needs to show the NCAA that they belong in the field. 

TIDE HITS ONLY 11-21 FROM THE FREE THROW LINE TO LOSE TO STATE AND A WHOLE LOT MORE...

 

COMPLIMENTS OF ROLLTIDE.COM

 I took an unprecedented choice to write a short article before today's game. I am not trying to be an 'I told you so' because I thought the Tide would win.  I wrote the article because I had some severe concerns with State. Let's give credit to Mississippi State for their win. It was hard fought, and they won. Now there is going to be a lot of "we can still make the NCAA." I'm not going to say something might happen which will cause that to happen. At the same time, I want, to be honest in telling you exactly what I think will happen, and what Alabama sorely needs at this time.    Does the Tide have a road to the NCAA? I don't think so, but maybe one can be created with a lot of great play, and some good luck. It had been my feeling and continues to be my belief, with a home loss to any of our final opponents would be fatal. I still believe that. It certainly isn't how I want to feel. Alabama needs to win its last two home games and beat Georgia on the road. Will a road win at Georgia make up for a loss to a low ranked Mississippi State loss. I don't think so.  If we don't make the NCAA here is the stat we can remember: 11-21 from the line on our home floor. That is hard to believe.

     That would be what I'd call step one. If Bama loses any of those games, they are NIT bound. If the gods favor us, and all the stars are in perfect alignment, there is a slim chance we beat Kentucky. Plainly speaking, it would be the biggest upset of the year in NCAA basketball. For the sake of argument let's say Alabama loses to Kentucky and wins three more regular season games. That gives the Tide 18 wins, and you are rarely the recipient of an NCAA bid when that happens. The worst thing Bama has done is to have lost to Auburn and Mississippi State. Those losses are the biggest mistake the Tide could have made. Win, three of the final four games and we, have a fighting chance, to get an invitation if, and this a huge if - Alabama can win at least two games in the SEC Tournament. and one of the wins has to be against a good team. Here's the rub. I think there is only one team in the SEC with enough juice to enhance our chances, and that is Kentucky. LSU and South Carolina have squandered their standing in my opinion. 

     Should the NCAA decide to take five teams from our league, we must convince the Selection Committee we are team number five. We need to beat two teams in the SEC Tournament who are our chief adversaries in making the field. Kentucky will be selected. South Carolina and TAM are likely choices. After that who goes? Round up the usual suspects. 

      TAM beat Kentucky today which will help the Tide's RPI some. It would have been nice if Auburn could have beaten Ole Miss. I understand that the officials made an absolute travesty in today's game. Those things happen. Sooner or later, for better or for worse, Alabama needs to make free throws. That is the third game this season the Tide has lost from 15 feet with no one guarding them. That is a sad thing for such a hard-working bunch of guys. It is also so unnecessary. Sorry if an old school basketball fan is upset. No one in the NCAA should make less than 70% of their free throws. That is a major part of the game. I'm serious when I say that had the Tide made a few free throws we would have 19 wins and 7 losses today.

Instead of being a lock for the big dance we now have to hope and pray. Anyone who tells you otherwise is just dreaming. Sometimes dreams come true. Let's hope that happens for the Alabama Crimson Tide. Johnson can't work a miracle in each game. He can't rebound and he can't shoot free throws. Whether it is the NIT or the perhaps the NCAA, the Tide's is in store for better days. 

    16-10 isn't great, but it can easily be a 20+win season and we do have some impressive wins. Honestly, I don't know if horrible losses can be offset by great wins. Stay tuned. 

LATE BREAKING UPDAYE OF IMPORTANCE: JOE LUNARDI, WHO DESPITE WHAT A LOT OF PEOPLE SAY, HAS THE BEST RECORD FOR PROJECTIONS INTO THE NCAA. THAT'S BECAUSE OF ESPN'S CLOUT WITH THE SELECTION COMMITTEE. I SUSPECT HE GET'S A LOT OF INFO FROM THEM. LUNARDI SAYS WE ARE STILL IN. THAT'S IMPORTANT TO ME BECAUSE OF WHERE HE GETS HIS INFO.

TRAP GAME?

IS STATE A TRAP GAME FOR BAMA?

       

       Trap games. You hear that term in football every season. The same applies for basketball as well. You just rarely hear the term. Alabama has four trap games left this season. They are Mississippi State, Auburn, Arkansas, and whoever is unlucky to draw the Tide,  Seriously, the game today is between two teams closely matched in talent level. The Crimson beat State in Starkville because the Alabama guards shut down the outside shooting of Malik Newman and company. Look for State to have some new sets to try to free up their outside game. On the plus side for the Tide, Taylor has stepped up his game. Gavin Ware is one of the most overlooked players in the SEC.

      Like it or not, the  Tide may not recover from losing any home game on the remaining schedule. Sorry if you disagree. If we do, we'll have to beat Kentucky or make a deep run in the NCAA tournament. The Tide needs just to keep winning and hope one of the lower ranked teams pulls off an upset. Do I think we win today? Yes. Am I worried? Very.